Annual Seminar 2019
from Monday, 2 September 2019 (09:00) to Thursday, 5 September 2019 (17:00)
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Monday, 2 September 201912:3012:30 - 13:1513:15 Welcome and opening - Andy Brown (ECMWF)Welcome and opening
- Andy Brown (ECMWF)
13:15 - 13:3013:3013:30 - 16:50Contributions-
13:30 Introduction and arrangements - Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
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13:45 A personal perspective on predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time-scales - Brian Hoskins (University of Reading & Imperial College London)
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14:45 Taming the butterfly effect to reach subseasonal and seasonal predictability - Roberto Buizza (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)
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16:00 Predictability associated with teleconnections from tropical phenomena - Franco Molteni (ECMWF)
16:5016:50 - 17:40Contributions-
16:50 The complexity of ENSO and its impacts: lessons learnt from initialized predictions - Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
17:4017:40 - 18:0018:0018:00 - 19:00 -
Tuesday, 3 September 201909:0009:00 - 16:50Contributions
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09:10 The Madden-Julian Oscillation - Steven Woolnough (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)
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10:00 Multi-Scale Impacts of Extratropical Ocean on the Atmosphere - Hisashi Nakamura (RCAST, University of Tokyo)
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11:20 Land surface as a predictability driver in Subseasonal and seasonal Forecasts - Emanuel Dutra (Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa)
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12:10 High-latitude processes in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions - Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)
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14:00 The role of atmospheric composition in the predictability at the S2S scale - Angela Benedetti (ECMWF)
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14:50 The role of the stratosphere for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting - Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich)
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16:00 Statistical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts at the extended and seasonal range - David Stephenson (University of Exeter)
16:5016:50 - 17:1017:1017:10 - 18:00Room: Weather Room -
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Wednesday, 4 September 201909:1009:10 - 14:00Contributions
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09:10 Atmospheric teleconnections, the North Atlantic Oscillation and long range forecasts of European winters - Adam Scaife (Met Office Hadley Centre)
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10:00 Seasonal forecasting systems: present and future - Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
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11:20 Multi-week/seasonal prediction for agricultural applications in Australia - Oscar Alves (Bureau of Meteorology)
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12:10 The US Navy’s Extended-range Prediction System with High-resolution Ocean and Ice models - Carolyn Reynolds (US Naval Research Laboratory)
14:0014:00 - 17:40Contributions-
14:00 How Using NASA’s Observations Affects the Balance Among Spatial Resolution, Ensemble Size, and Physical Complexity in the GEOS-S2S System - Steven Pawson (NASA GSFC)
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14:50 Comparing the Predictability and Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts - Timothy DelSole (George Mason University)
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16:00 Predicting high impact weather events beyond the medium range - Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
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16:50 Towards process-based narratives for seasonal climate predictions - Johanna Baehr (Institute of Oceanography, CEN, Uni Hamburg)
17:4017:40 - 18:0018:0018:00 - 19:00Room: Weather Room19:0019:00 - 21:00 -
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Thursday, 5 September 201909:1009:10 - 15:55Contributions
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09:10 What did we learn from the S2S database? - Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
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10:00 Bridging the Gap between Weather and Climate Prediction using Multi-model Ensembles - Kathleen Pegion (George Mason University/COLA)
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11:20 Seasonal forecast data and information: the providers' perspective from the Copernicus Climate Change Service - Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
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12:10 Subseasonal and seasonal climate forecast applications - Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC)
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14:00 Analyzing causal pathways of the stratospheric polar vortex using machine learning tools - Marlene Kretschmer (PIK Potsdam)
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14:50 Where our science ambitions meet computing and data handling limitations - Peter Bauer (ECMWF)
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15:40 Close of seminar
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