Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere

One of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how will tropospheric ozone concentrations change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common...

The transport of trace gases through the stratosphere impacts surface climate. Small changes in stratospheric water vapor, on the order of one part per million, can impact surface temperature by as much as a tenth of a degree. A sudden drop in stratospheric water vapor of this magnitude – a response to internal variability of the atmosphere – was observed in 2000. Chemistry climate model...

A key region of the stratosphere is the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) -- the main entry region of air from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Temperatures at the cold point in this region modulated the concentrations of stratospheric water vapour. The strength of the upwelling in this region affects the transport of chemical tracers across the tropopause. These factors determine...