Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere

from Monday, 18 November 2019 (12:30) to Thursday, 21 November 2019 (17:00)
ECMWF

        : Sessions
    /     : Talks
        : Breaks
18 Nov 2019
19 Nov 2019
20 Nov 2019
21 Nov 2019
AM
09:00
Session 2 (cont.) : Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal modes - Inna Polichtchouk (ECMWF) (until 09:30) ()
09:00 Stratospheric impact on surface climate on seasonal time scales - Dr Steven Hardiman (Met Office)   ()
09:30
Session 3 : Polar vortex : predictability and downward influence - Inna Polichtchouk (ECMWF) (until 12:00) ()
09:30 The dynamics and predictability of sudden stratospheric warmings and their surface impacts - Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich)   ()
10:00 Causes and fixes for stratospheric temperature biases in IFS and their impact on predictability - Inna Polichtchouk (ECMWF)   ()
10:30 --- Coffee break ---
11:00 Sudden stratospheric warmings in reanalyses and their tropospheric fingerprint - Blanca Ayarzagüena (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)   ()
11:30 The impact of Arctic sea-ice anomalies on the stratospheric polar vortex - William Seviour (University of Bristol)   ()
09:00
Session 5 : Model development, impact of model biases - Michail Diamantakis (ECMWF) (until 12:00) ()
09:00 Recent work at DWD to improve model dynamics and physics in the stratosphere and mesosphere - Dr Günther Zängl (Deutscher Wetterdienst)   ()
09:30 A new approach to linear ozone modelling - Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)   ()
10:00 Dependence of simulated atmospheric teleconnections on biases in stratospheric circulation - Dr Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)   ()
10:30 --- Coffee break ---
11:00 Dynamics of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings - Presenting on behalf of Thomas Birner (University of Munich): Álvaro de la Cámara (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)   ()
11:30 Stratospheric data assimilation at ECMWF - Elias Holm (ECMWF)   ()
09:00
Session 7 : Gravity waves in observations and models - Peter Bechtold (ECMWF) (until 12:15) ()
09:00 Global gravity wave distributions observed from satellites and resolved in the ECMWF-IFS - Peter Preusse (Forschungszentrum Juelich)   ()
09:30 Stratospheric waves over the Southern Andes - Andreas Dörnbrack (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics)   ()
10:00 Beyond Traditional Limits of Gravity-Wave Parameterizations: Transient Wave-Mean-Flow Interactions and Unbalanced Mean Flows - Ulrich Achatz (Goethe Universität Frankfurt)   ()
10:30 --- Coffee break ---
11:15 How does knowledge of atmospheric gravity waves guide their parametrizations? - Riwal Plougonven (LMD/IPSL, Ecole Polytechnique)   ()
11:45 Stratospheric impacts of a source-based parameterization of gravity waves generated by flow imbalance - Álvaro de la Cámara (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)   ()
PM
12:30
Registration and coffee (until 13:15) (Weather Room)
13:15 Welcome and opening - Nils Wedi (ECMWF)   ()
13:30
Session 1 : Introductory / motivating talks - Nils Wedi (ECMWF) (until 15:00) ()
13:30 Importance of the stratosphere for extended-range prediction - Prof. Ted Shepherd (University of Reading)   ()
14:15 The representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in S2S models - Dr Amy Butler (CIRES/NOAA)   ()
15:00
Session 2 : Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal modes - Tim Stockdale (ECMWF) (until 18:00) ()
15:00 A signal and noise analysis of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models - Prof. Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)   ()
15:30 --- Coffee break ---
16:00 The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability - Christopher O'Reilly (University of Oxford)   ()
16:30 Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral spring and early summer - Dr Nick Byrne (University of Reading)   ()
17:00 On the dynamics of stratosphere-troposphere planetary-wave coupling - Etienne Dunn-Sigouin (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)   ()
17:30 Subseasonal Forecasting of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events and their Influence on the Troposphere in the NASA-GEOS-S2S Forecast System - Joan Alexander (NWRA)   ()
18:00
Ice breaker, drinks and posters (until 19:30) (Weather Room; Lobby)
12:00
Panel discussion (Panellists: Joan Alexander, Amy Butler, Ted Shepherd, Günther Zängl) - Nils Wedi (ECMWF) (until 13:00) ()
13:00 --- Lunch ---
14:00
Poster session (until 15:30) ()
15:30 --- Coffee break ---
16:00
Session 3 (cont.) : Polar vortex : predictability and downward influence (until 16:30) ()
16:00 What influences the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings? - Prof. Lesley Gray (NCAS / University of Oxford)   ()
16:30
Session 4 : Trace gases, ozone, Brewer-Dobson circulation - Robin Hogan (ECMWF) (until 18:00) ()
16:30 Remote presentation: Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models - Marta Abalos (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)   ()
17:00 Remote presentation: Trace Gas Transport in the Stratosphere: Opportunities and Challenges - Edwin Gerber (Courant Institute, New York University)   ()
17:30 Chemical, radiative and dynamics interactions in the stratosphere using a hierarchy of models - Alison Ming (University of Cambridge)   ()
12:00
Session 6 : Diagnostics - Irina Sandu (ECMWF) (until 15:00) ()
12:00 How does the Troposphere Amplify Stratospheric Variability? - Mark Baldwin (University of Exeter)   ()
12:30 Using causal discovery algorithms to evaluate troposphere-stratosphere linkages in reanalyses and modelling experiments - Marlene Kretschmer (PIK)   ()
13:00 --- Lunch break ---
14:00 Remote presentation: Propagating annular modes - Aditi Sheshadri (Stanford University)   ()
14:30 Investigation of ECMWF IFS Arctic winter 2015/16 lowermost stratosphere moist bias using airborne limb-imaging infrared observations - Wolfgang Woiwode (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-ASF)   ()
15:00
Working groups (with refreshments available in the Weather Room and lobby 15:30-16:00) (until 17:30) (Council Chamber; Large Committee Room, Lecture Theatre)
19:00
Workshop dinner at Côte Brasserie (until 21:00) ()
12:15
Working group summaries / discussions and closing (until 13:00) ()
13:00 --- Lunch ---