Virtual Workshop: Warm Conveyor Belts – a challenge to forecasting
from Tuesday, 10 March 2020 (08:00) to Thursday, 12 March 2020 (17:00)
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Monday, 9 March 2020
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Tuesday, 10 March 202009:00 Introduction - Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)Introduction
- Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
09:00 - 09:1009:1009:10 - 10:10Contributions-
09:10 An overview on the concept of warm conveyor belts - Heini Wernli (ETH Zurich)
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09:35 Aspirations for the workshop - Bringing WCB understanding into forecast system development - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
10:10 BreakBreak10:10 - 10:2510:2510:25 - 11:55Contributions-
10:25 Airborne active remote-sensing observations of warm conveyor belts - Andreas Schäfler (DLR)
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10:55 Embedded convection in the warm conveyor belt of a North Atlantic cyclone and its relevance for large-scale dynamics - Annika Oertel (ETH Zurich)
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11:25 The importance of warm conveyor belts for (upscale) error growth - Michael Riemer (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)
11:55 Poster lunchPoster lunch11:55 - 13:5513:5513:55 - 15:15Contributions-
13:55 The role of cloud diabatic processes in the life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes - Christian M. Grams (IMK-TRO, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))
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14:20 Examining model error in potential temperature and potential vorticity via weather forecasts at different lead times - Oscar Martinez-Alvarado (National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Reading)
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14:45 The Impact of Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide - Jeremy Berman (University at Albany, SUNY)
15:15 BreakBreak15:15 - 15:3015:3015:30 - 17:15Contributions-
15:30 Linking atmospheric rivers and warm conveyor belt airflows - Helen Dacre (University of Reading)
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15:55 Influence of Warm Conveyor Belts on the Predictability of Downstream High-Impact Weather - James Doyle (Naval Research Laboratory)
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16:25 West Coast Forecast Challenges and Development of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance - Marty Ralph (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)
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16:50 Adjoint Sensitivity and the Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Observations for North Pacific Forecasts - Carolyn Reynolds (Naval Research Laboratory)
17:15 Workshop photo - Bluejeans GalleryWorkshop photo - Bluejeans Gallery17:15 - 17:35 -
Wednesday, 11 March 202009:0009:00 - 10:30Contributions
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09:00 How well do current observations observe key features of warm conveyor belts? - Stephen English (ECMWF)
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09:30 Assimilation of water vapour, cloud and precipitation observations in extratropical cyclones - Alan Geer (ECMWF)
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10:00 The prospects for radars on satellites to provide better observations of warm conveyor belts - Anthony Illingworth (University of Reading)
10:30 BreakBreak10:30 - 10:4510:4510:45 - 12:05Contributions-
10:45 How do diabatic processes in warm conveyor belts influence circulation and Rossby waves at tropopause level? - John Methven (University of Reading)
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11:10 Revisiting the isentropic view of PV modification in warm conveyor belts - Ben Harvey (NCAS / University of Reading)
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11:35 Three-dimensional radiative transfer around a tropopause fold - George Craig (Meteorological Institute, LMU Munich)
12:05 Lunch breakLunch break12:05 - 13:0513:0513:05 - 14:20Contributions-
13:05 Rapid ascents embedded in a warm conveyor belt observed and modeled at kilometer-scale resolution - Florian Pantillon (Laboratoire d'Aérologie)
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13:30 Impact of different microphysics on the warm conveyor belt of a deep extratropical cyclone observed during the NAWDEX campaign and on its associated ridge building. - Marie Mazoyer (CNRM, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France)
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13:55 Diabatic processes in the Warm Conveyor Belt of the Stalactite Cyclone: sensitivity to two convective parametrization schemes of the global Météo-France model ARPEGE - Gwendal Riviere (LMD/IPSL, ENS, CNRS)
14:20 BreakBreak14:20 - 14:3514:3514:35 - 16:00Contributions-
14:35 Microphysics and dynamics of snowfall associated to a warm conveyor belt over Korea - Josué Gehring (EPFL)
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15:05 The effect of clouds, radiation and turbulence on upper-level PV - Heini Wernli (ETH Zurich) (presenting for Elisa Spreitzer, ETH Zurich)
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15:35 Linking Predictability barriers and diabatic processes - Claudio Sanchez (MetOffice)
16:00 BreakBreak16:00 - 16:1516:1516:15 - 17:30Contributions-
16:15 Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution - Suzanne Gray (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
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16:40 GPM Satellite Radar Observations of Precipitation Mechanisms in Atmospheric Rivers - Forest Cannon (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
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17:05 Observational analysis of atmospheric rivers from dropsondes - Alison Cobb (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)
20:00 Lunch - Coffee - Night Owl - Posters and discussionLunch - Coffee - Night Owl - Posters and discussion20:00 - 21:00 -
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Thursday, 12 March 202008:3008:30 - 10:15Contributions
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08:30 Development of a logistic model to study warm conveyor belts on subseasonal time-scales - Julian Quinting (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
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08:55 Verification of warm conveyor belts in ECMWF IFS reforecasts - Jan Wandel (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology )
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09:20 Exceptional air mass transport and dynamical drivers of an extreme wintertime Arctic warm event - Hanin Binder (ETH Zurich)
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09:45 Warm Conveyor Belts and Their Role for Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Extratropical Storm Tracks - Hanna Joos (IAC ETH Zurich)
10:15 BreakBreak10:15 - 10:3010:30 Introduction to break out groups - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)Introduction to break out groups- Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
10:30 - 10:4010:4010:40 - 12:4012:40 Lunch (and prepare WG summaries)Lunch (and prepare WG summaries)12:40 - 14:4014:4014:40 - 16:40Contributions-
14:40 Working group summaries and final plenary discussions
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