Virtual Event: Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2020)

Europe/London
Description

#UEF2020

A forum to discuss the use and performance of ECMWF's forecasts and related products

“Using ECMWF’s Forecasts” provides a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECMWF data and products. It is open to all ECMWF forecast users around the world and provides an opportunity to give feedback to ECMWF on forecast performance and on the range of available products, and to learn about ECMWF’s recent developments of its forecasting system.

2020 theme: "Keeping users at the heart of operations”

ECMWF was created over four decades ago with the goal of improving global numerical weather predictions to support its Member and Co-operating States, as well as the broader meteorological communities. ECMWF now provides its users around the world with predictions for days, weeks and seasons ahead at a level of accuracy and reliability second to none. The Centre owes this leading position to a combination of collaborative principles, top-level professionals, powerful HPC capacities and a strong user focus.

During this year’s meeting we explored how end-user needs feed into the operational activities of weather and environmental information providers to deliver added value outputs. We looked at ECMWF processes and how they transform research, technical development and data inputs into desired products or services for its data users in Member and Co-operating states and around the world.

Keeping users at the heart of operations relies on maintaining a 2-way communication between users and data providers. Effective channels to collect feedback and advice are therefore essential to establish such a dialogue. Moreover, the 2-way communication ensures that innovation is relevant and its benefits are passed to users in order to support their ability to provide more accurate environment, weather, water and climate actionable information. Examples of this are research to operations processes that transition from a planning, development and testing phase to implementation and evaluation. The corresponding operations to research process provides feedback on performance and evolving user needs, helping to focus research efforts.

The UEF offered an opportunity for participants to showcase their activities and responses to users’ needs. The meeting also provided a framework where participants were able to share their experiences with ECMWF data and provide feedback on ECMWF products.

Events team
    • 13:30 14:00
      Virtual arrival 30m
    • 14:00 14:10
      Welcome from ECMWF Director General 10m
      Speaker: Florence Rabier (ECMWF)
    • 14:10 14:15
      Virtual Housekeeping 5m
      Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 14:15 17:00
      Afternoon session
      Convener: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
      • 14:15
        ECMWF Product Development 20m

        The presentation will review forecast product development activities at ECMWF over the past year, in response to user requests and feedback.
        New forecast outputs introduced over the last year include a new Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) to highlight the large-scale water vapour transport in the atmosphere, as well as products relating to large-scale weather regimes and extremes in the extended range.
        The next model upgrade will introduce several new forecast output fields, including revisions to convective inhibition (CIN) and EFI products for severe convection (CAPE and CAPE-shear). Additions to our tropical cyclone (TC) products will introduce metrics of TC “size” to supplement the existing forecasts of TC track and intensity. These new “wind radii” use mean 10m wind thresholds of 18, 26 and 32 m/s (34, 50 and 64 knots) to denote the furthest distance away from the centre of the TC at which each of the wind speed thresholds are exceeded.
        Updates to the ECMWF web charts and to the interactive ecCharts system will also be presented.

        Speaker: David Richardson (ECMWF)
      • 14:35
        ECMWF Future Plans: Reading, Bologna and Global Forecasting 20m

        ECMWF provides its users around the world with predictions for days, weeks and seasons ahead at a level of accuracy and reliability second to none. The Centre owes this leading position to a combination of collaborative principles, top-level professionals, powerful HPC capacities and a strong user focus.

        This talk will present ECMWF plans and provide updates on ongoing work programmes. Current progress and timeline for the Bologna Our New Datacentre will be shown, and an overview of operational plans will be given. Updates on model and software developments including the new model cycle 47r1 and new and updated ECMWF products and services including Copernicus will be presented.

        Speaker: Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
      • 14:55
        Causes of systematic errors in forecasts of near-surface weather parameters and prospects for reducing them 20m

        Near-surface forecast biases are the result of a complex interplay between processes parametrized in the atmospheric and surface columns of a model, leading to locally generated errors, and advection processes, which constitute a non-local source of errors. Understanding the leading causes of such errors is necessary to address and reduce near-surface biases in a way that improves the physics of the model. This requires disentangling the role of individual processes by using a range of diagnostics for stratifying and attributing errors. The ECMWF-internal USURF project, which was initiated in 2017, has coordinated efforts in this area, and its main results as well as the necessary model developments to reduce systematic biases in near-surface weather parameters are summarized here.

        Speaker: Irina Sandu (ECMWF)
      • 15:15
        Conversations over coffee: Meet ECMWF staff 30m
      • 15:45
        Virtual icebreaker 15m
        Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
      • 16:00
        ECMWF Forecast Performance 20m

        An update is given on the evolution of forecast skill of the IFS in the medium and extended range. It is shown that the implementation of model cycle 46r1 in June 2019 has had a significant positive impact on both upper-air and near-surface variables. Causes of persistent systematic errors in near-surface forecasts are discussed and recent steps undertaken for reducing them are outlined. Geographical variations in the evolution of upper-air skill over the last decade are presented. The inclusion of observation error in ensemble verification, which has already been in place for upper-air variables, has now been extended to near-surface variables, and the latest results are discussed.

        Speaker: Thomas Haiden (ECMWF)
      • 16:20
        Virtual Poster Session A 40m
        Speaker: hosted by Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 08:45 09:00
      Virtual arrival 15m
    • 09:00 09:05
      Day 2 Welcome and Housekeeping 5m
      Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 09:05 09:15
      "Keeping users at the heart of operations": Introducing the theme 10m

      Users are key to everything that is done at ECWMF. Our goal for over 40 years has been to improve global numerical weather predictions to support our Member and Co-operating States, as well as the broader meteorological communities. “Keeping users at the heart of operations” (this year UEF theme) is one key element to providing successfully products and services to users. The talk will introduce the theme and the focus of this year UEF.

      Speaker: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF)
    • 09:15 10:20
      Thematic area: Research to Operations or Operations to Research
      Convener: David Richardson (ECMWF)
      • 09:15
        Improving the Research to Operations process at ECMWF 45m

        Mike Sleigh and myself would like to either co-chair a workshop or give a joint presentation on the work going on at ECMWF to improve the R2O process. We would like to discuss this more with the organiser(s) to see what would fit best into the programme. Topics to include:
        - Overview of the current R2O process at ECMWF
        - Identifying ways we can improve the process
        - Our current focus to improve R2O, including the development of a d-suite
        - Options for the future, would it be better to do more frequent smaller updates rather than the big cycle upgrades?
        We would welcome feedback and ideas from the attendees, hence we are open to the idea of more of a workshop, or panel discussion rather than just a presentation.

        Speakers: Jenny Rourke (ECMWF), Michael Sleigh (ECMWF)
      • 10:00
        Linkage from Research to Operational activity 20m

        The topic and aim is how can work the improved know how transfer from research in theoretical meteorology to apply in operational practise (synoptical approach). And the opposite case - providing of case studies with meaningful results from behalf of synoptic, meso- and subgrade scale and their interpretation with different conceptional models as well as current model physics and parametrisations in global and high resolution models. In short this means double feedback from theoretical and practical meteorology and use of synergies between conceptional models on the one hand and applying the state of art on behalf of model physics on the other hand. Such approach can lead to discover of new (external) or adaptation of existing parameters, related to enhancement of operational forecast through differential analysys and interpretation of synoptical deviations and nonhomogeneties (discovered and approved with case studies) with the support of physics and mathematics. Results can be p.e. enhanced parametrisation or new explicit model calculations (i.e. different or adapted forcings) and so improved weather forecasting (for short and medium range weather forecast) and also better understandig of physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere and ocean as well as the complexe interactions between it and within it.

        Speaker: Dr Jens Bonewitz (DWD)
    • 10:20 11:00
      Virtual Poster Session B 40m
      Speaker: hosted by Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 11:00 12:00
      Lunch break 1h
    • 12:00 12:40
      Real-time refinement of ECMWF subseasonal forecast confidence 40m

      The World Climate Service (please see link at bottom of this page) is a commercial web-based portal designed to enable meteorologists and weather-sensitive enterprises to improve their long-range forecasting process. It provides independent sources of long-range forecast information, including statistical and analog forecast tools, to improve scenario analysis and the communication of future weather risk.
      In summer 2019, the World Climate Service released a new statistical temperature forecast product based on success in a subseasonal forecast contest. The statistical scheme, called Sub-R, performed well in winter 2019-2020, and here we present a verification comparison between Sub-R and the ECMWF subseasonal forecasts for specific geographies. While the ECMWF was superior in Europe and Asia, Sub-R outperformed ECMWF over the USA domain. Moreover, in all three domains, the ECMWF performance was substantially better when the Sub-R forecasts agreed than when Sub-R predicted a different outcome.
      We conclude that statistical forecast guidance such as Sub-R provides a valuable complement to dynamical model forecasts at subseasonal lead times. The results also suggest that statistical schemes have the potential to identify windows of enhanced predictability when the dynamical models will achieve higher skill than normal. Independent statistical guidance therefore permits real-time refinement of forecast confidence, whether in terms of subjective interpretation by a forecaster, or in terms of new quantitative multi-predictor forecasts. An obvious next step is to perform conditional calibration of the dynamical model forecasts to create probability information that reflects variations in skill and confidence based on statistical inputs.

      Speaker: Jan Dutton (Prescient Weather Ltd)
    • 12:40 13:20
      Thematic area: Novel products and services
      Convener: David Richardson (ECMWF)
      • 12:40
        Future French severe weather warnings system 20m

        Météo-France is working on a new severe weather warnings system that will be ready in 2021. It will be more precise, more understandable, more efficient.
        The main novelties are to overcome the administrative district "Département" and to display two distinct warnings maps for today and tomorrow.

        The goal is to improve the consideration of local vulnerabilities and communication with exposed populations.

        Speaker: Alexandre Trajan (Météo-France)
      • 13:00
        Using ECMWF Ensemble Products in Tropical Cyclone Field Program Planning 20m

        Over the past fifteen years, during and after the THORPEX era, several novel experimental products based on ECMWF ensemble data have been developed for use during tropical cyclone field campaigns. The products include guidance for targeted observations; track probabilities; probabilities of tropical cyclogenesis and related environmental quantities; and diagnostics related to tropical cyclone outflow. New diagnostic tools related to tropical cyclone structure and intensity change will be trialled for use during the 2020 Atlantic and Western North Pacific field campaigns. A review of the utilization of these products and key results will be presented.

        Speaker: Prof. Sharanya Majumdar (University of Miami)
    • 13:20 13:50
      Conversations over coffee: Meet your fellow researchers and forecasters 30m
    • 13:50 15:00
      User Voice Corner
      Convener: Tim Hewson (ECMWF)
      • 13:50
        User Voice Corner 20m

        The User Voice Corner at UEF2020 provides an opportunity for everyone who uses ECMWF data, products and services to provide feedback on these, discuss improvements and suggest ideas for the future. Due to the virtual nature of this year’s UEF the User Voice Corner will all be held online through a combination of presentations, breakout groups and forums.

        The User Voice Corner will begin with a presentation by Tim Hewson (Forecast Performance and Products) summarising the responses to the User Voice Survey, which all registered UEF attendees had the opportunity to complete. Tim will highlight where work related to your feedback, ideas and suggestions is underway and if it is in future plans. Some topics will be chosen to be discussed further in the breakout groups.

        The breakout groups will be led by ECMWF experts in the relevant topic areas. Links to ‘virtual breakout rooms’ will be provided to all attendees so they can join the breakout group/s they are most interested in. Forums for each topic area will also be available for comments and text discussions between attendees. During the breakouts the topic will be discussed in detail, this is where you as users are key, we would like your input and suggestions to improve products and services related to the topic.

        After the User Voice Corner breakout group leads will post summaries of the discussions onto the forum for further comment.

        We strongly encourage participation and look forward to your feedback and engagement during the discussions!

        Speaker: Tim Hewson (ECMWF)
      • 14:10
        User Voice Corner - Breakout Group 1 10m
      • 14:20
        User Voice Corner - Breakout Group 2 10m
      • 14:30
        User Voice Corner - Breakout Group 4 10m
      • 14:40
        User Voice Corner - Breakout Group 5 10m
      • 14:50
        User Voice Corner - Breakout Group 6 10m
    • 15:00 16:00
      Virtual Soirée - How well do you know ECMWF? Quiz 1h

      In previous years the UEF dinner has been an opportunity to have fun and network with colleagues in an informal environment. Unfortunately this year we are unable to do the dinner however we'd like to bring a bit more fun to UEF2020 so during this year we will be holding a Virtual Soiree where we will be hosting a 'How well do you know ECMWF?' quiz.

      Details on joining the quiz will be available shortly, we look forward to seeing you there!

      Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 07:15 07:30
      Virtual arrival 15m
    • 07:30 07:35
      Day 3 Welcome and Housekeeping 5m
      Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 07:35 07:45
      Welcome from ECMWF Director General (repeat) 10m
      Speaker: Florence Rabier (ECMWF)
    • 07:45 09:45
      Repeat session
      Convener: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
      • 07:45
        ECMWF Product Development (repeat) 20m
        Speaker: David Richardson (ECMWF)
      • 08:05
        ECMWF Future Plans: Reading, Bologna and Global Forecasting (repeat) 20m

        ECMWF provides its users around the world with predictions for days, weeks and seasons ahead at a level of accuracy and reliability second to none. The Centre owes this leading position to a combination of collaborative principles, top-level professionals, powerful HPC capacities and a strong user focus.

        This talk will present ECMWF plans and provide updates on ongoing work programmes. Current progress and timeline for the Bologna Our New Datacentre will be shown, and an overview of operational plans will be given. Updates on model and software developments including the new model cycle 47r1 and new and updated ECMWF products and services including Copernicus will be presented.

        Speaker: Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
      • 08:25
        Causes of systematic errors forecasts of near-surface weather parameters and prospects for reducing them (repeat) 20m
        Speaker: Irina Sandu (ECMWF)
      • 08:45
        Conversations over coffee: Meet ECMWF staff 40m
      • 09:25
        ECMWF Forecast Performance (repeat) 20m
        Speaker: Thomas Haiden (ECMWF)
    • 09:45 11:00
      Thematic area: Novel products and services
      Convener: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
      • 09:45
        Utilising ECMWF seasonal hindcast data from a European windstorm insurance loss perspective 20m

        Daily ECMWF maximum gust forecasts from the Copernicus C3S seasonal hindcast project have been used to develop diagnostics directly relevant to the insurance industry.

        Firstly, by converting wind gusts into losses through simple insurance exposure considerations and damage functions, we are able to identify the spatial characteristics of the largest industry loss events as well as looking for any "grey swan" events that may not have been experienced before.

        European windstorm loss forecasts from seasonal hindcasts are also contrasted with historical loss data from the past 25 years to assess the potential for using seasonal forecasts in the insurance industry.

        Speaker: Dr Richard Dixon (CatInsight, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading)
      • 10:05
        Smart Climate Hydropower Tool: An artificial intelligence based service for hydropower production seasonal forecast 20m

        Smart Climate Hydropower Tool is an innovative web-cloud-based service that implements a set of data-driven methods for river discharge. An application for two catchments in South America is discussed (test cases), where management of hydropower plants can benefit from knowledge of incoming discharge forecasts up to 6 months in advance.
        SCHT has been developed inside H2020 project "CLARA - Climate forecast enabled knowledge service" and exploits several Artificial Intelligence algorithms, evolving by R&D activity to test new available ones.
        Although tangible results using AI have been published (i.e. Callegari, et al., 2015, De Gregorio et. al 2017) challenges remain for seasonal lead times and rainfall dominated catchments, where forecast of meteorological variables plays a critical role.
        In this contribution we show results of application of different AI algorithms (from supervised learning regression techniques, to artificial neural networks). Each algorithm is trained over past decades datasets of recorded data, forecast performances are then evaluated using separate test sets with reference to benchmarks (historical average of discharge values and simpler multiparametric regressions).
        Major operative advantages of AI with respect to mechanistic hydrological models include limited to none a priori knowledge of involved physical phenomena, high level of flexibility when managing heterogeneous sets of variables related to discharge, and quick setup time of the forecast. Major efforts are requested to identity informative input features ranging from earth observation to gauging stations data, to public meteorological forecasts (i.e Copernicus Climate Change Service-C3S). Using AI techniques many combinations of features can be tested together, to predict river discharge to the reservoirs, choosing the best performing one and tailoring the service to the catchment of interest. Once trained, each algorithm just needs to retrieve online data to perform forecasts, with limited maintenance (i.e. annual re-training to consider new available hydrological data).
        For demonstrational purposes we prototyped a cloud-based service, for immediate visualization, through a common browser, of both past and forecasted data, and get on fly performance metrics calculation of the forecasts.

        Speaker: Mr Paolo Mazzoli (GECOsistema srl)
      • 10:25
        Towards a sub-seasonal agricultural drought forecast 20m

        Insufficient precipitation and subsequent water stress for crop production are among the biggest risks in agriculture. Especially the past two years (2018, 2019) in central Europe show that dry and hot summers enhance the probability of harvest failures due to long term drought situations. Hence, a better prediction of long-term crop water stress situations could improve the resilience and adaptation of agriculture. One important indicator for agricultural drought is the plant available water in the top soil (0-60 cm). This soil moisture is a storage parameter which depends not only on the meteorological input but also on the vegetation cover and soil properties. In comparison to precipitation the soil moisture changes slowly with moderate variability, due to its buffer capacity for incoming rainfall. Here we try to take advantage of this persistence behaviour by performing long range soil moisture forecasts for Germany based on sub-seasonal forecasts. Therefore we combined the ECWMF extended range forecasts with a 1-D hydrological model AMBAV, which is capable of parameterizing regional soil properties and crop growth. Reasonable skill for predicting low soil moisture under winter wheat in early summer can be found with a 3-4 week forecast lead time. Therefore, a forecast of the hot and dry summer in 2018 was possible. The soil moisture forecasts had lower mean absolute error rates and higher rank correlation skill than regarding the precipitation directly as drought predictor, though the precipitation forecast is used as input for the subsequent hydrological modelling. However, further analyses are necessary in order to evaluate forecast skills for less extreme soil moisture situations. Nonetheless these results could be a first step towards an improved sub-seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for Germany and should be able to be adapted in other European countries.

        Speaker: Thomas Leppelt (Deutscher Wetterdienst)
      • 10:45
        Interactivity with a chance of clouds 15m
        Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 11:00 12:00
      Lunch break 1h
    • 12:00 15:00
      Thematic area: Integrating new products in established processes / Research to Operations and Operations to Research
      Convener: Estibaliz Gascon (ECMWF)
      • 12:00
        Market is king: climate services for whom? 20m

        Accelerating climate adaptation and boost climate mitigation practices is strictly linked to the provision of science-based and policy-relevant climate information. The timely production and delivery of climate services is promoting innovation with the objective of building a climate-smart society. Theorizing and understanding the mechanisms through which innovation takes place is vital to overcome bottlenecks and improve the uptake of these tools. In this work, I discuss the importance of service innovation on a theoretical and empirical base. First, I frame climate services as part of a new service-dominant economy. This involves a neo-Schumpeterian approach built upon improved products, processes, markets, inputs and organizational structures. On the empirical side, I analyse the critical factors for climate services innovation using business models as tools to understand how value is created, retained and delivered. I collected data through semi-structured interviews with fourteen climate services operating at seasonal and decadal scale. Findings were used to build an original taxonomy of business models for climate services, based on a recent contribution from the management literature (Lüdeke-Freund et al., 2018). Hence, I present and discuss the main barriers threatening each business model type, by grouping them according to the different neo-Schumpeterian innovation dimensions. Findings prove the essential role of value network and partnerships, as well as the critical importance of technologies in boosting the uptake of climate services. Lack of adequate market research, obsolete processes and financial constraints are, instead, threatening the full development of climate services market.

        Speaker: Francesca Larosa (Ca' Foscari University of Venice; Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC))
      • 12:20
        Radiosonde descent data: quality and next steps 20m

        In recent years National Meteorological Services have expressed an increasing interest in using the descent phase of operational radiosonde soundings. After a sounding balloon burst, a radiosonde continues measurement and can provide another linked, but still independent profile data measured at a downstream location and about two hours after the launch.

        In response reporting of descent data was added to the Vaisala MW41 software. Various NMSs have been looking at the descent data provided from their own radiosonde operations. Some data is already sent on the GTS. In co-operation with meteorological community a radiosonde specific template for descent data has been defined.

        Radiosonde descent reports have been monitored in the operational ECMWF system since June 2019. Initial results show station dependent differences against model for stratospheric temperatures. The reason is likely linked to to descent rate of falling radiosonde, that can be highly varied at stratosphere altitudes. For most flights, the raw descent winds show reduced variability compared to the ascent winds.

        Recently, in collaboration with ECMWF and NMS’s, a better understanding has been obtained on some of the factors affecting the quality of radiosonde descent data. Work continues for calculation and data filtering to get most out of the valuable descent phase measurement data from radiosonde observations. It seems likely that in the near future reports of descent profiles can contribute to improved analyses/forecasts.

        Speaker: Matti Lehmuskero (Vaisala Oyj)
      • 12:40
        Speakers' Corner - Ivan Tsonevsky: Revision of CAPE and CIN parameters provide as a model output from the IFS, Cihan Sahin: Updates to Meteograms, Fernando Prates: Tropical Cyclone Radius, Ivan Tsonevsky: Extended-range products 1h 5m
        Speakers: Ivan Tsonevsky (ECMWF), Cihan Sahin (ECMWF), Fernando Prates (ECMWF)
      • 13:45
        Introduction to reforecasting and extended range forecasts 5m
        Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
      • 13:50
        Conversations over coffee: 1) Meet your fellow university students and 2) Focus on reforcasting and extended range forecasts 30m
      • 14:20
        Machine Learning for Weather 40m

        Machine Learning refers to a set of techniques for developing software routines by reverse engineering them from data. With this approach, it is possible to develop capabilities beyond those we can build by hand. Using these techniques, we can improve all aspects of the numerical weather prediction pipeline. In this presentation, I will review some of the main ideas behind machine learning and describe breakthroughs which have been or may be achieved. Examples include autonomous sensors, intelligent in-painting and down-scaling, inverse modeling, acceleration of data assimilation, improvements to model parameterizations, model-free nowcasting, detection of severe weather, and many more. It is important for scientists to understand both the potential and limitations of these techniques as machine learning is here to stay, and it has the potential to revolutionize science over the coming decades.

        Speaker: David Hall (Nvidia)
    • 07:15 07:30
      Virtual arrival 15m
    • 07:30 07:35
      Day 4 Welcome and Housekeeping 5m
      Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
    • 07:35 11:00
      Morning session
      Convener: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF)
      • 07:35
        Copernicus Services at ECMWF: An Overview 5m

        This presentation will provide an overview of Copernicus Services at ECMWF.
        ECMWF is indeed the entrusted entity for the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. The Copernicus Climate Change Service responds to environmental and societal challenges associated with human-induced climate change. The service will give access to information for monitoring and predicting climate change and will, therefore, help to support adaptation and mitigation. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service provides continuous data and information on atmospheric composition. The service consists of daily global forecasts of atmospheric composition, daily forecasts of European air quality, global and regional reanalyses, as well as services on solar radiation, greenhouse gases and emissions.

        Speaker: Jean-Noel Thepaut (ECMWF)
      • 07:40
        Recent activities of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and plans for the next phase 20m

        The Copernicus Climate Change Service, one of the six thematic services of the European Programme on earth's observations Copernicus, is managed by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission. The service, which has been operational for only a couple of years, can now count on nearly 45 000 users towards whom it delivers some 50 TB of data per day. This short talk is to describe the current status of the programme and present some of the most significant development that are expected for the next few months and years.

        Speaker: Carlo Buontempo (ECMWF)
      • 08:00
        CAMS, high-quality information about air composition in support of COVID-19 R&D 20m

        CAMS is the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. It is implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission and delivers information about atmospheric composition, emissions and surface fluxes as well as solar radiation and climate forcing based on Earth Observation. CAMS products are delivered both by ECMWF and by a wide range of contractors distributed in Europe. They are open and free-of-charge and most can be accessed through the Atmosphere Data Store (http://ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu). This talk will discuss the main CAMS products, their performance and how they can be used especially in the context of the current COVID-19 crisis both in Europe and worldwide.

        Speaker: Vincent-Henri Peuch (ECMWF)
      • 08:20
        Forecasting floods and wildfires - overview of Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) activities at ECMWF 20m

        This talk will give an overview of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) activities at ECMWF. ECMWF is the computational centres of wildfire and flood for CEMS, and both systems run at European and Global scale. The forecasts for floods and fire are disseminated to a range of users, most importantly the forecast user communities, the European Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) as well as the European Aristotle project. The latter delivers world leading multi-hazard advice to ERCC. The talk will also point to the latest developments within the services as well as on outline of future developments. It will also give a few examples of how the services are used.

        Speaker: Fredrik Wetterhall (ECMWF)
      • 08:40
        Data-driven climate communication - the example of the European State of the Climate 2019 20m

        In her presentation, Freja will focus on C3S activities that relate to data-driven climate communication, demonstrating how in an operational chain data is transformed into information products of various types and with different target audiences. The main use case will be the European State of the Climate report for 2019, which was published in April 2020. The presentation will showcase how the report strives towards providing a transparent and traceable chain from the different data sources to the information products within the report. The presentation will also use the results of the report to reflect on how to communicate this type of information to a wide range of audiences. Freja will also briefly discuss how the content of the report is used for further communication activities, such as for the Copernicus media partnerships with Euronews and CNN.

        Speaker: Freja Vamborg (ECMWF)
      • 09:00
        Conversations over coffee: Meet your fellow Copernicus colleagues 30m
      • 09:30
        Developing applications for climate and meteorology in the CDS Toolbox - interactive session 30m

        The Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) aims to bring climate data to a wide audience of users. From users with a skilled technical background who would like access raw model and observation data for research purposes, to higher level users that would like to access the final product to help inform decisions.

        The CDS achieves this by acting as the gateway to the data which is hosted on servers around the world, and providing the online processing tools so that users can process the data to meaningful and understandable results. This reduces the amount of resource lost through data transfer and hosting, and improves transparency as all users access the data via the same entry point.

        This session will give an introduction to the objectives and architecture of the CDS, and a short interactive session where attendees can begin to develop their own applications to explore the data hosted on the CDS

        Speaker: Edward Comyn-Platt (ECMWF)
      • 10:00
        Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Sectoral Information System (SIS) 20m

        Climate-sensitive sectors need to have access to reliable data and information products in order to understand and manage risks associated to climate variations and changes. The C3S Sectoral Information System is a credible source of tools, applications and indicators built on high value climate data, providing relevant and accessible information to users together with correct examples on how to pass from climate data to information that is useful in decision making processes. The SIS delivers a set of indicators relevant to specific sectors and it provides a set of interactive downstream applications that are used not only to explore but also to build user-oriented solutions. The SIS component also includes use cases and demonstrators, to show-case the benefits of the CDS and strongly communicate it for further user uptake. This presentation will provide examples on how, through the SIS component of C3S, it is possible to pass from a useful to a usable piece of information, fully built on the CDS technology.

        Speaker: Chiara Cagnazzo (ECMWF)
      • 10:20
        Capgemini’s AsSISt airline maintenance service, powered by CAMS 20m

        AsSISt is the solution led by Capgemini in collaboration with INERIS and Barcelona Supercomputing Center to offer aircraft maintenance improvement via the related impact of particles during flights and on ground.
        The service provides indicators to help airlines companies, aircraft manufacturers with a precise monitoring of the plane exposure to harmful particles and then allowing them to potentially optimize aircraft maintenance plans.
        AsSISt delivers indicators such as corrosion, abrasion and blockage, supporting maintenance and repair overhaul services taking into account any disturbance of the environment, enabling a near real time monitoring along the flight track or for an ensemble of flight tracks, for past of future flight in forecast mode.
        AsSISt does not require any instrumentation over aircraft, and the tool is based only on flight paths data set and on the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services related information.

        Speakers: Carine Saüt (Capgemini), Mr Nicolas Estival (Capgemini)
      • 10:40
        ERA5-Land, dedicated land surface reanalysis 10m

        ECMWF is currently producing the next generation of European Reanalysis ERA5. Among others, it will make it possible to better understand the processes and interactions between different components of the Earth System which has derived into the climate from 1950 until present. The core of ERA5 is the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System in combination with a powerful 4D-VAR data assimilation system. The description of the land surface component is also part of the ERA5 portfolio. However, with the objective of serving (primary) the land surface community and other communities focused on land applications, an enhanced offline version of the land component is also under production, resulting into the ERA5-Land dataset. For example, a well-defined spin-up strategy has proved to provide a much better hydrological consistency over all the available period. ERA5-Land dataset is a unique dataset of its kind that provides a global scale description of the most important land variables through a single simulation driven by near-surface atmospheric fields from ERA5, with thermodynamical orographic adjustment of temperature. The synchronization with ERA5T mode will also make it possible to provide NRT updates. One of the added values of ERA5-Land with respect to the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis is a global projected horizontal resolution of approximately 9 km (around 4 times finer resolution than ERA5), matching the ECMWF TCo1279 operational grid, and therefore providing consistent input for Numerical Weather Prediction and climate studies involving land water resources, but also for accurate hydrological and agricultural modeling. The offline nature of land reanalysis allows to incorporate forefront model developments before the production phase. For example, ERA5-Land benefits from a revision of the soil thermal conductivity, making it more accurate the heat transfer through the vertical dimension.
        This presentation will provide an overview of the ERA5-Land dataset and its main features.

        Speaker: Joaquin Munoz-Sabater (ECMWF)
      • 10:50
        Concluding remarks and feedback poll 10m
        Speaker: ECMWF