The predictability of the atmosphere in the medium and extended range will be considered, including different aspects of the Earth system which give rise to predictability on longer time scales. Methods for creating a probabilistic forecast system and its verification will be presented.
- Theoretical ideas - chaos, predictability limits
- Ensemble methods - taking account of uncertainty in initial conditions and in the model
- Predictability in the extended range - ocean, sea-ice, stratosphere, land
- Probabilistic forecast initialisation, modelling, evaluation and verification
- ECMWF medium-range, monthly and seasonal systems.
Please note that this course does not cover methodologies for downscaling/post-processing or discuss decadal prediction.
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A course fee is payable by applicants who do not reside in an ECMWF Member or Co-operating State.