Training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems

Europe/London
Description

This course was a remote event.

This five-day module will consider the challenge of making predictions from days to seasons ahead. 

The predictability of the atmosphere in the medium and extended range will be considered, including different aspects of the Earth system which give rise to predictability on longer time scales. Elements of a probabilistic forecast system as well as its calibration and verification will be presented.

The course is a combination of lectures, hands-on practicals and group discussion sessions and will include some elements of pre-course study.

Please note that this course does not cover methodologies for downscaling/post-processing, probabilistic products or discuss decadal prediction.

Main topics:

  • Theoretical ideas - chaos, predictability limits
  • Ensemble methods - taking account of uncertainty in initial conditions and in the model
  • Predictability in the extended range - ocean, sea-ice, stratosphere, land
  • Probabilistic forecast initialisation, modelling, evaluation and verification
  • ECMWF medium-range, monthly and seasonal systems.

Requirements

Participants should have a good meteorological and mathematical background, and are expected to be familiar with the contents of standard meteorological and mathematical textbooks.

Introductory material not covered by the course can be found in our lecture note series.

Some practical experience in numerical weather prediction is an advantage.

All lectures will be given in English.

Events team
    • 08:45 09:10
      Online course opens 25m
    • 09:10 10:10
      Introduction 1h
      Speakers: Andy Brown (ECMWF), Dr Sarah Keeley (ECMWF)
    • 10:10 10:45
      Break 35m
    • 10:45 11:45
      Introduction to probabilistic seamless forecasting 1h
      Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
    • 11:45 13:00
      Lunch break 1h 15m
    • 13:00 14:00
      Chaos and predictability limits 1h
      Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)
    • 14:00 14:30
      Break 30m
    • 14:30 15:30
      Weather regimes 1h
      Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF)
    • 15:30 15:45
      Comfort break 15m
    • 15:45 16:45
      Introduction to practial sessions - Making sure your computer works! 1h
      Speaker: Sarah Keeley (ECMWF)
    • 08:45 09:10
      Online course opens 25m
    • 09:10 10:10
      Coupled land-atmosphere variability 1h
      Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
    • 10:10 10:45
      Break 35m
    • 10:45 11:45
      Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability 1h
      Speaker: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)
    • 11:45 13:00
      Lunch break 1h 15m
    • 13:00 14:00
      Coupled sea ice-atmosphere variability 1h
      Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)
    • 14:00 14:30
      Break 30m
    • 14:30 15:30
      Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - MJO 1h
      Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
    • 15:30 15:45
      Comfort break 15m
    • 15:45 16:45
      Overview of forecast systems in extended and long range 1h
      Speakers: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
    • 08:45 09:10
      Online course opens 25m
    • 09:10 10:10
      Coupled stratosphere-troposphere variability 1h
      Speaker: Prof. Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)
    • 10:10 10:45
      Break 35m
    • 10:45 11:45
      Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - ENSO 1h
      Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
    • 11:45 13:00
      Lunch break 1h 15m
    • 13:00 14:00
      Intial condition uncertainty 1h
      Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)
    • 14:00 14:30
      Break 30m
    • 14:30 15:30
      Ensemble verification (1) 1h
      Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
    • 15:30 15:45
      Comfort break 15m
    • 15:45 16:45
      Diagnostics (1) 1h
      Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
    • 08:45 09:10
      Online course opens 25m
    • 09:10 10:10
      Ensemble verification (2) 1h
      Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
    • 10:10 10:45
      Coffee break 35m
    • 10:45 11:45
      Model uncertainty 1h
      Speaker: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
    • 11:45 13:00
      Lunch break 1h 15m
    • 13:00 14:00
      Initialization techniques in coupled forecasting 1h
      Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
    • 14:00 14:30
      Break 30m
    • 14:30 15:30
      Practical session using SciLab (TBC) 1h
      Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)
    • 15:30 15:45
      Comfort break 15m
    • 15:45 16:45
      Practical session continued 1h
      Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)
    • 08:45 09:10
      Online course opens 25m
    • 09:10 10:10
      Diagnostics (2) 1h
      Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
    • 10:10 10:45
      Coffee break 35m
    • 10:45 11:45
      Assessing the skill of long range forecast & the predictability paradox 1h
      Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)
    • 11:45 13:00
      Lunch Break 1h 15m
    • 13:00 14:00
      Post-processing of EPSs reforecasts - reliability diagrams 1h
      Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
    • 14:00 14:30
      Break 30m
    • 14:30 15:30
      Question and Answer Session