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SUMMARY:Machine learning seminar series - Enhancing Western United States 
 Sub-Seasonal Forecasts: Forecast Rodeo Prize Competition Series
DTSTART:20201201T160000Z
DTEND:20201201T170000Z
DTSTAMP:20260518T183300Z
UID:indico-event-218@events.ecmwf.int
CONTACT:events@ecmwf.int
DESCRIPTION:\n\n\n\n\n\nHost\n\nFlorian Pappenberger (ECMWF)\n\nSpeaker\n\
 nKenneth Nowak is the Water Availability Research Coordinator for the Bure
 au of Reclamation’s Research and Development Office. In this role\, he c
 oordinates internal and external research activities related to streamflow
  and water supply forecasting\, water operations models and decision suppo
 rt systems\, open data efforts\, and climate variability and change.  Pri
 or to joining the Research and Development Office\, Ken worked for Reclama
 tion’s Lower Colorado Region on long-term Colorado River planning and ma
 nagement.  Ken holds Ph.D. and M.S. degrees in Civil Engineering from the
  University of Colorado and a B.S. in Environmental Engineering from Renss
 elaer Polytechnic Institute. \n\nAbstract\n\nThe Bureau of Reclamation (R
 eclamation) is the largest wholesaler of water in the United States\, deli
 vering water to 31 million people\, serving 20 percent of western irrigato
 rs\, and generating enough hydropower to serve 3.5 million homes. Providin
 g these services is informed by a variety of hydroclimate observation and 
 forecast information. Improved sub-seasonal forecasts of temperature and p
 recipitation would enable water managers to better prepare for shifts in h
 ydrologic regimes\, such as the onset of drought or occurrence of wet weat
 her extremes.\n\nIn support of advancing sub-seasonal prediction\, Reclama
 tion launched a series of prize competitions called the Sub-Seasonal Clima
 te Forecast Rodeos. These year-long\, real-time forecasting competitions a
 re focused on improving Western U.S. temperature and precipitation for wee
 ks 3 & 4 and weeks 5 & 6. Rodeo I concluded in 2018 with several teams out
 performing benchmark forecasts\, winning $525\,000 in prizes. Based on the
  success of Rodeo I\, and the desire to further improve skill of sub-seaso
 nal forecasts\, Rodeo II was launched in 2019 and will conclude fall 2020.
  Rodeo II features the same year-long competition and forecasts as Rodeo I
 \, but is open to international participation\, and winning solutions from
  Rodeo I serve as benchmarks. Relative to Rodeo I\, participation in Rodeo
  II has increased almost ten-fold\, with many teams outperforming the benc
 hmarks.\n\nThis presentation will provide an overview of Rodeo I and II\, 
 experiences\, and final outcomes. Further\, it will discuss some of the wi
 nning methods for advancing sub-seasonal forecasts of temperature and prec
 ipitation in the Western United States.\n\n\n\n\n\nhttps://events.ecmwf.in
 t/event/218/
IMAGE;VALUE=URI:https://events.ecmwf.int/event/218/logo-528950275.png
LOCATION:16:00 GMT
URL:https://events.ecmwf.int/event/218/
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