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SUMMARY:Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2023)
DTSTART:20230605T120000Z
DTEND:20230608T120000Z
DTSTAMP:20260312T194700Z
UID:indico-event-328@events.ecmwf.int
CONTACT:events@ecmwf.int
DESCRIPTION:A forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECM
 WF data and products'Using ECMWF’s Forecasts' (UEF2023) provided a plat
 form to discuss the use and performance of ECMWF's forecasts and related p
 roducts. It was open to all ECMWF forecast users around the world and prov
 ided an opportunity to give feedback to ECMWF on forecast performance and 
 on the range of available products\, to learn about ECMWF’s recent devel
 opments of its forecasting system and to share experiences and network wit
 h ECMWF and other users. UEF2023 was an in-person event and took place a
 t ECMWF's headquarters in Reading\, UK. The oral presentations were lives
 treamed.2023 theme: Ensemble forecastingThe theme was developed using sug
 gestions from attendees of previous UEF meetings\, recent events and hot t
 opics\, after discussions with a variety of ECMWF staff and users in Membe
 r and Co-operating States and a Twitter poll.OverviewECMWF produced its fi
 rst operational ensemble predictions on 24 November 1992 and started to ru
 n a daily ensemble prediction system on 1 May 1994. The first ensemble (EN
 S) ran at 210 km resolution with 19 levels and 33 members. Over 30 years s
 ince the first ensemble run at ECMWF\, the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS
 ) now runs twice a day at 18 km with 137 levels and 51 members out to 15 d
 ays. The Extended Range ensemble (ENS-extended\, introduced in 2004) curre
 ntly runs twice a week at 36 km with 51 members out to 46 days ahead.  E
 nsembles are at the heart of ECMWF’s global forecasts at all time ranges
 \, from the ensemble of data analysis to the medium\, extended and long (s
 easonal) forecast ranges. Both the medium-range and the extended-range ENS
  will undergo substantial changes in the next model cycle upgrade (48r1) i
 n 2023. The ENS resolution will be increased to 9 km while the ENS-extende
 d will run daily with 101 members. ENS forecasts are used across meteorol
 ogy\, hydrology\, air quality\, and climate including for extreme event pr
 ediction\, uncertainty understanding and communication and for re-forecast
 ing. Many ECMWF forecast products are created from ENS data including mete
 ograms\, the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Precipitation Type. The EU's
  Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) run by ECMWF uses global
  and regional air quality ensembles for atmospheric monitoring. For longer
 -range forecasting\, the ensemble seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 feed
 s products like the EU's European and Global Flood Awareness Systems (EFAS
  and GloFAS).  On climate time scales\, while ECMWF does not run its ow
 n climate EPS\, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) run by EC
 MWF has products like the seasonal forecast ensemble\, with members provid
 ed by ECMWF\, the Met Office (UK)\, Météo-France\, DWD (Germany)\, CMCC 
 (Italy)\, NCEP (USA)\, JMA (Japan) and ECCC (Canada). Ensembles are also c
 ommonly used for the communication of climate scenarios such as the Intern
 ational Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) emission scenarios.While many for
 ecast products use ensemble data\, the use of ensembles on a daily basis b
 y users is not as high as would be expected\, with some users favouring mo
 re deterministic approaches. Therefore\, UEF2023 also aims to explore the 
 challenges of using ensembles and to better understand why they are not ut
 ilised to their full potential.\n\nhttps://events.ecmwf.int/event/328/
IMAGE;VALUE=URI:https://events.ecmwf.int/event/328/logo-3485565466.png
LOCATION:ECMWF
URL:https://events.ecmwf.int/event/328/
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