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SUMMARY:Training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems
DTSTART:20231127T090000Z
DTEND:20231201T124500Z
DTSTAMP:20260613T054200Z
UID:indico-event-335@events.ecmwf.int
CONTACT:training@ecmwf.int
DESCRIPTION:This five-day course will consider the challenge of making pre
 dictions from days to seasons ahead. The predictability of the atmosphere
  in the medium and extended range will be considered\, including different
  aspects of the Earth system which give rise to predictability on longer t
 ime scales. Elements of a probabilistic forecast system as well as its cal
 ibration and verification will be presented.The course is a combination of
  lectures\, hands-on practicals and group discussion sessions and will inc
 lude some elements of pre-course study. Please consult the final timetable
  on the left-hand side menu for modules and timings.Please note that this 
 course does not cover methodologies for downscaling/post-processing\, prob
 abilistic products or discuss decadal prediction.Main topics:Theoretical i
 deas - chaos\, predictability limitsEnsemble methods - taking account of u
 ncertainty in initial conditions and in the modelPredictability in the ext
 ended range - ocean\, sea-ice\, stratosphere\, landProbabilistic forecast 
 initialisation\, modelling\, evaluation and verificationECMWF medium-range
 \, monthly and seasonal systemsRequirementsParticipants should have a good
  meteorological and mathematical background\, and are expected to be famil
 iar with the contents of standard meteorological and mathematical textbook
 s.Introductory material not covered by the course can be found in our lect
 ure note series.Some practical experience in numerical weather prediction 
 is an advantage.All lectures will be given in English.\n\nhttps://events.e
 cmwf.int/event/335/
LOCATION:ECMWF
URL:https://events.ecmwf.int/event/335/
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