Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2018)

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#UEF2018

“Using ECMWF’s Forecasts” is open to all ECMWF forecast users. This year's theme will provide an opportunity for participants to showcase innovative ideas, for example weather applications, forecast products or diagnostics tools. It will also provide a framework where participants can share their experiences with ECMWF data and provide feedback on ECMWF products.

2018 theme: “ECMWF model output applications: the only limit is your imagination"

Weather is part of everybody’s life: we are curious about it, we want to plan our day or we use services (like energy, utilities) that are affected by it. Aviation, agriculture, energy, utilities, retail are some examples of sectors connected directly or indirectly to weather.

Weather data are transformed into relevant information to be used in decision making processes. Examples of this are indices alerting of favourable conditions for flu outbreaks and therefore helping people to make informed decisions regarding their health and well-being. Probabilities of winds being above or below specified thresholds provide means to effectively manage wind farms, and probabilities of occurrence of specified weather scenarios help farmers to minimise damages due to mildew on vineyards. These are just a few of the variety of applications that use weather information.

Let’s take a step further and imagine experiencing a severe weather event in virtual reality where you live. Could this experience help to make better decisions? Let us imagine using infographics to communicate forecast confidence. Would that make possible decision-making at a glance? This is what could be done with today’s ECMWF model outputs in addition to those applications in the water, energy, agriculture and health sectors that have already made use of ECMWF data.

Events team
  • Wednesday, 6 June
    • 12:00 → 12:15
      Applying new 3-D jet core visualisation techniques to the study of extreme cyclones 15m

      Wide-ranging scientific advances are making real-time use of 3D visualisation in meteorology increasingly attractive. Improved computer technology, mainly derived from the gaming industry, and encapsulated in modern-day graphics cards, now allows for transparency, fly through, re-orientation and animation of complex 3D model atmosphere scenes in real time. Meanwhile one can adapt relatively recent mathematical techniques to represent the salient atmospheric features (e.g. cyclones, jet cores, trough lines, fronts) as points, strings or surfaces in 3D space. These algorithms compress large volumes of synoptically relevant gridded data into a very compact yet meaningful form, and likewise dramatically reduce obscuration of other aspects of interest. Together these advances can allow researchers (and indeed forecasters) to quickly establish a clear 3D picture of the key features of the model atmosphere, and their evolution in time. For some aspects one can even visualise the 4D behaviour of multiple ensemble members. ECMWF is beginning to integrate these approaches into its investigations of forecast performance.
      This poster illustrates how the above developments are brought together in the open-source, interactive 3D meteorological visualisation tool “Met.3D” (http://met3d.readthedocs.org), showing in particular how a new algorithm for identifying jet cores in 3D as “strings” performs in this environment. The jet core algorithm extends and adapts 2D jet core mathematics to 3D. It derives from a momentum-based definition of a jet core line; the algorithm is described.
      A case of an extreme extra-tropical cyclones (Xavier, 5 October 2017) is used to illustrate applications, and the benefits of 3D versus 2D visualisation. This shows in a clearer way than hitherto the dynamical links between extreme cyclogenesis events and “vertically stacked” jet cores. The plots can also provide helpful pointers to the mechanisms of downward momentum transfer in sting jet regions. There is also an illustration of how jet stream core ‘bundles’ can be derived from the 51-member ECMWF ensemble and portrayed in a meaningful way.

      Speaker: Tim Hewson (ECMWF)