Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles
from Tuesday, 2 April 2019 (09:00) to Friday, 5 April 2019 (13:00)
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Monday, 1 April 2019
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Tuesday, 2 April 201913:1513:15 - 13:45Room: Weather Room13:45 Introduction - Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)Introduction
- Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
13:45 - 14:15Room: Lecture Theatre14:15 Chair - John Methven (University of Reading)Chair - John Methven (University of Reading)14:15 - 15:30Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
14:15 Flow-dependent predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts - Mio Matsueda (Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba)
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14:45 The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction using the S2S database - Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)
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15:15 Stratospheric influences on subseasonal predictability of European energy-industry-relevant parameters - Dominik Büeler (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research + Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)
15:30 Coffee breakCoffee break15:30 - 16:00Room: Weather Room16:00 Chair - Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)Chair - Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)16:00 - 17:15Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
16:00 Understanding predictability of the MJO in S2S enesemble - Shuyi Chen (University of Washington)
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16:15 MJO Impact on Temperature Extremes over Australia during Austral Spring - Harry Hendon (Bureau of Meteorology)
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16:30 Extratropical predictability from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the MJO in S2S models - Chaim Garfinkel (Hebrew University)
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16:45 Intra-seasonal and Seasonal Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropics - Cristiana Stan (GMU)
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17:00 Subseasonal Forecast Skill over the Northern Polar Region in Three Operational S2S Systems - Hai Lin (Environment and Climate Change Canada)
17:15 Posters and drinks receptionPosters and drinks reception17:15 - 19:15Room: Lobby/Weather Room -
Wednesday, 3 April 201909:00 Chair - Richard Mladek (ECMWF)Chair - Richard Mladek (ECMWF)09:00 - 10:45Room: Lecture TheatreContributions
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09:00 The technical development of the TIGGE and S2S databases - Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)
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09:25 TIGGE and S2S status and developments at CMA - Xing Hu (China Meteorological Administration ) FeiFei Yang (China Meteorological Administration)
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09:45 The S2S Data Base in IRI Data Library: Maprooms and online analysis tools - Andrew Robertson (International Research Institute for Climate and Society)
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10:15 Ensemble forecasting at ECMWF - Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
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10:30 The global ICON-EPS: a contribution to TIGGE? - Michael Denhard (Deutscher Wetterdienst)
10:45 Coffee breakCoffee break10:45 - 11:15Room: Weather Room11:15 Chair - Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)Chair - Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)11:15 - 11:45Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
11:15 An Assessment of Predictability and Prediction of NCEP GEFS for Subseasonal Forecast - Yuejian Zhu (EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA)
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11:30 Using the S2S Database to Evaluate the Performance of the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Ensemble - Matthew Janiga (Naval Research Laboratory)
11:45 Chair - Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)Chair - Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)11:45 - 13:00Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
11:45 Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves - Tilmann Gneiting (Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies)
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12:15 A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal precipitation predictions - Caio Coelho (CPTEC/INPE)
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12:45 Spread of global 2-meter temperature analyses: disentangling forecast systematic errors from mis-estimation of ensemble spread - Tom Hamill (NOAA ESRL PSD)
13:00 Lunch breakLunch break13:00 - 14:0014:00 Chair - Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)Chair - Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)14:00 - 15:15Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
14:00 Use of TIGGE/Global Ensembles in Tropical Cyclone Research and Operational Forecasts - Helen Titley (Met Office)
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14:15 Achieving seamless verification across sub-seasonal time scales from weather to climate - Paul Dirmeyer (George Mason University)
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14:30 Uncertainties in Extended-Range Precipitation Forecasts: Model Biases or Predictability Limits - Mingyue Chen (Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA)
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14:45 Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather via Circulation Regimes - Kathleen Pegion (George Mason University)
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15:00 Ensemble forecasts for the midlatitudes on sub-seasonal time scales (10-60 days): exploring new products for predicting Atlantic-European weather regimes - Christian M. Grams (IMK-TRO, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))
15:15 Coffee breakCoffee break15:15 - 15:45Room: Weather Room15:45 Chair - David Richardson (ECMWF)Chair - David Richardson (ECMWF)15:45 - 17:00Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
15:45 Prospects for subseasonal sea ice prediction at both poles - Lorenzo Zampieri (Alfred Wegener Institute)
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16:00 2014 Indo-Pak’s cataclysmic flood: Can potential future plights could be alleviated with currently available forecasting skill ? - Pushp Raj Tiwari (Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics Research, University of Hertfordshire)
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16:15 Assessment of prediction skill for sub-seasonal rainfall variability over Brazil in ensemble-based prediction systems - Amulya Chevuturi (NCAS)
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16:30 Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and its Climate Impacts with a Multi-Model Ensemble - Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
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16:45 A zonal component of monsoons and the variability in the strength of the Madden-Julian Oscillation events - Samson Hagos (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
17:00 Poster sessionPoster session17:00 - 19:00Room: Lobby/Weather Room19:00 Workshop dinnerWorkshop dinner19:00 - 21:00Room: ECMWF Restaurant -
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Thursday, 4 April 201909:00 Chair - Craig Bishop (NRL)Chair - Craig Bishop (NRL)09:00 - 10:45Room: Lecture TheatreContributions
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09:00 Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecast Performance and Prediction of Ensemble Forecast Error - James Goerss (SAIC, NRL Monterey)
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09:30 Multi-model Prediction on Subseasonal Timescales at the US NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Approaches to Calibration and the Identification of Forecasts of Opportunity - Daniel Collins (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
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10:00 Isotonic Distributional Regression (IDR): A powerful nonparametric calibration technique - Johanna Ziegel (University of Bern)
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10:15 A Bayesian framework for postprocessing multi-ensemble weather forecasts - Clair Barnes (Department of Statistical Science, University College London)
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10:30 Benefits of a multimodel approach for forecasting precipitation over New Caledonia (SW Pacific) at S2S timescales - Damien Specq (Météo-France)
10:45 Coffee breakCoffee break10:45 - 11:15Room: Weather Room11:15 Chair - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)Chair - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)11:15 - 12:00Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
11:15 Subseasonal Prediction of European Summer Heat Waves in the S2S Hindcast Ensembles - Ole Wulff (ETH Zurich)
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11:30 Experimental subseasonal forecasting of atmospheric river variations for western N. America during Winters 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 - Michael DeFlorio (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes)
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11:45 Use of S2S forecasts for humanitarian decision making in Kenya - Dave MacLeod (University of Oxford)
12:00 Chair - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)Chair - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)12:00 - 13:00Room: Lecture TheatreContributions-
12:00 Quantifying and attributing predictable signals on sub-seasonal timescales - Dan Rowlands (Citadel)
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12:30 Digiscape: A one-platform solution for seasonal climate integration into Agriculture. - Jaclyn Brown (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)
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12:45 A flood alert system for Switzerland based on integrated water vapor fluxes - Jonas Bhend (MeteoSwiss)
13:00 Lunch breakLunch break13:00 - 14:0014:0014:00 - 14:15Room: Lecture Theatre14:1514:15 - 15:3015:30 Posters and coffee breakPosters and coffee break15:30 - 16:30Room: Lobby/Weather Room16:3016:30 - 18:00 -
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Friday, 5 April 201909:00 Chair - Andrew Robertson (IRI)Chair - Andrew Robertson (IRI)09:00 - 10:30Room: Lecture TheatreContributions
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09:00 Transmuting S2S forecasts into applications - Ángel G. Muñoz (IRI - Columbia University)
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09:30 The S2S4E project, sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for energy - Andrea Manrique-Suñén (Barcelona Supercomputing Center)
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09:45 Drought Monitoring and Prediction Using Sub-Seasonal Predictions - Yuhei Takaya (MRI/JMA)
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10:00 Developing capacity of Southeast Asian countries to apply subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts in impact forecasting tools - Thea Turkington (Meteorological Service Singapore)
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10:15 Subseasonal forecasting for the telecommunication network - David Brayshaw (University of Reading)
10:30 Coffee breakCoffee break10:30 - 11:00Room: Weather Room11:0011:00 - 12:0012:0012:00 - 13:00Room: Lecture Theatre -