Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

Considering lessons learned from experiences at seasonal timescale, this talk discusses some concrete S2S applications using both calibrated and uncalibrated forecasts from the S2S Database and the SubX project.

First, we illustrate how a Python interface for IRI’s Climate Predictability Tool —PyCPT— can be employed to assess skill and calibrate sub-seasonal forecasts in ways that are useful for the development of S2S societal applications.

Then we present how a combination of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts can be used to identify onset and demise of rainfall seasons and the mid-summer drought in Central America, and how that information is being used locally to make decisions for the food security sector in the region.

Finally, the talk will discuss how S2S forecasts are being used to co-develop drought Forecast-based Early Warning and Forecast-based Financing systems in developing countries.