Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

The skill of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts models is relatively high for Southeast Asia; however, uptake of such information by the disaster risk reduction community is still in its infancy. As part of the implementation of the ASEAN-UN Joint Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management (2016-2020), recommendations were made to build capacities for using S2S products at the timescales of 2 weeks to 1 month. By incorporating weather and climate information at the S2S timescale into the decision making processes, it is hoped that this will allow for pre-emptive action and mid-course corrections in tandem with long-range forecasting and near-real time monitoring, as well as other sources of information.

As part of an effort to demonstrate applicability of S2S products in Southeast Asia, this work revisits three recent disasters related to heavy rainfall and drought, exploring how such forecasts could have potentially been used to support decision makers. Along with assessing the forecast from various models in the S2S Database, risk-sensitive decisions on the S2S timescale are also identified, exploring how S2S forecasts could have potentially strengthen these decisions, along with risk assessments and early warning services in Southeast Asia in general.

The results from this study are expected to be incorporated into the S2S-Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA) Capability Building Project (2017-2020), which aims to familiarise Southeast Asian National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with S2S products, as well as to equip them with skills to support end users in their own countries and regions.