Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)

In line with its long-term Strategy, ECMWF has recently developed test products for the likelihood of regime transitions associated with the occurrence of severe cold spells, and for the probabilities of occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings and weather regimes. The aim is to identify the main weather regimes in the Euro-Atlantic region and to predict the probability that future weather will be dominated by one or the other of these patterns. This information can provide insights into the likelihood of severe weather events often associated with specific flow circulations. Along with the new products, diagnostic and verification tools have been developed to monitor the performance. In this presentation the link between the products and evaluation will be discussed by using recent cases as examples.