Seminars

Summarising ensembles using a mean and a reasonable worst-case

by Steve Jewson (Weather and climate risk consultant)

Europe/London
Description

For some applications of ensembles it may not be possible to process every ensemble member. One approach is to reduce the ensemble down to just the mean and a reasonable worst-case before processing. I describe a simple statistical methodology for creating the worst-case, and apply it to EURO-CORDEX rainfall projections and ECMWF medium range temperature forecasts.