Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2022)

Advances in numerical weather prediction mean that model output is more accurate, and with an increasing array of variables and ensembles. It is good to discuss how best to chart this model output to be easily digestible to a wide cross section of forecasters and users.

It is also important to ask what is missing from the model output - the known unknowns – and how to communicate these uncertainties.
Using case studies from the energy sector, we will explore how the operational forecaster can add value, including through flow-dependent evaluation of forecasts. These will show how knowledgeable forecasters add value, and enable users to make better real world decisions.

Time allowing, we will look at how NWP might try to encapsulate some of this forecaster knowledge ... tho this speaker believes operational forecasters will continue to add value for some decades.