Using ECMWF’s Forecasts (UEF2024)

This presentation will give a high level overview of recent progress and plans at ECMWF. Particular foci will include recent and forthcoming cycle upgrades, developments in machine learning and plans for the next generation of renalyses.

An overview of the latest advancements and ongoing developments in forecast products from ECMWF NWP systems. This update will highlight the key features of new IFS cycle 49r1 and introduce some product-related topics to be covered later during this UEF2024.

An update is given on ECMWF's forecast performance across lead times and for a range of upper-air and surface parameters. We take a look at how ECMWF is doing relative to other global forecasting centres, identifying specific strengths and weaknesses. The model intercomparison will also include data-driven forecasts such as from the newly developed AIFS, and how these compare to those of...

A brief snapshot on the latest user-oriented advancements on CAMS and C3S, ranging from developments on ERA6, seasonal forecasts and CO2MVS to the new CDS engine, applications and new training plans.

ECMWF implements the data dissemination services on behalf of two of the Copernicus services: the Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). This is done via the Climate Data Store (CDS) and the Atmosphere Data Store (ADS), both of which share a common architecture which is currently being modernised.

The common architecture data store (CADS) is designed as...

In 2014, ECMWF signed with the European Commission a contribution agreement on the implementation of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) and Climate Change (C3S) monitoring services. For 10 years, now CAMS has been developed under ECMWF supervision to deliver operational forecasts, analyses, and reanalyses of the chemical composition of the atmosphere at the regional and global scales....

The National Collaboration Programme (NCP) is a dedicated scheme to support EU Member States and Copernicus Participating States, i.e., Norway, Iceland, and UK in extracting the maximum benefit from Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) services. The NCP is an initiative of ECMWF, endorsed by the European Commission, and is based on a...

ECMWF recognises that open data is an essential tool in contributing to the development of new meteorological methods and analysis. Since 2020, ECMWF has been taking steps towards an open data policy. In 2023, we have seen a significant increase in the user uptake of ECMWF open data.

The data currently released as open data are a subset of ECMWF Real-time catalogue at a 0.25-degree spatial...

ECMWF periodically gives Member and Co-operating States an opportunity to provide formalised feedback on ECMWF products, including verification thereof. This time we delayed sending out the request because of the introduction, in June 2023, of our first model cycle to exploit the new ATOS supercomputer in Bologna - 48r1. This had higher spatial resolution, and a very different configuration...

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized the way we interact with data and information. We will examine the potential of LLMs in enhancing the interpretation of complex weather and climate datasets, as well as generating new insights through data processing and analysis. We will begin with an overview of LLMs, outlining fundamental approaches to developing systems that utilize them,...

Machine Learning (ML) is playing an increasingly significant role across ECMWF, both through hybrid approaches (helping to improve existing forecasting systems) and data-driven approaches (resulting in new models such as our data-driven forecasting system, AIFS). Within data-driven approaches, we are training from reanalysis/analysis datasets, whilst also exploring how to train models directly...

ECMWF has developed a data-driven forecast model, the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS), which is now run in experimental mode alongside our NWP model IFS. AIFS’s forecasts are highly skilful and now available to the public. The talk will describe the current state of AIFS, its architecture and framework, and discuss some of the design decisions. Furthermore, we will...

In this presentation we will give an overview of the evaluation work for AIFS, with a focus on different kind of extreme events. As for other machine-learning based weather forecasts, we see very good scores both in terms of surface and upper-air variables. We will explore if there is any pattern in the performance relative to IFS (seasonal, regional, etc.). Regarding extremes we will look at...

This talk will give an overview of latest developments on ECMWF's graphical products and applications (Opencharts and ecCharts) as well as outlining the plan for upcoming changes and new products. The talk also aims to have a Q&A session at the end to discuss user's feedbacks and issues.

This presentation introduces a new simple diagnostic, called CURV (Curvature Using Radial Variation), that identifies cyclonic and anticyclonic regions using surface pressure or geopotential height, over a range of scales (typically 500-4000km). CURV has been developed as part of work to assess the benefit of combining forecasts from the medium-range and extended-range ensembles.

The method...

The generation of near-real-time simulated satellite images has been further developed in the operational ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cycle 48r1 to include visible simulated images in addition to the existing infrared images. Following progress in the radiative transfer modelling for visible wavelengths, reflectances that would be seen in a visible channel (635 nm and 810 nm of...

Whilst the users and the uses of extended range forecasts are inevitably wide-ranging, a common, basic user requirement for map products is visualising these two factors: (i) where there is a shift in the distribution of the ensemble member forecasts, and what the sign and magnitude of that shift is, and (ii) how ensemble member forecast spread compares with climatological (reforecast)...

Based on code ported from the Met Office, and as part of a collaborative effort connected to the Extratropical Cyclone product suite, ECMWF has been testing out a new set of medium range products related to the "density of fronts" across the ensemble. Products from each data time include the front density itself, and also a list of the "most representative member" for each lead time....