Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. Droughts and floods in the region are common; poor performance of the rainy season in 2011 and 2016 led to widescale threats to food security and flooding in 2018 led to significant impacts on human life.

The project ForPAc (Toward Forecast-Based Preparedness Action, funded by NERC & DFID) is working together with humanitarian institutions in Kenya to explore the possibility for taking preventative action based on subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. Such actions may range from early cash-transfers based on months-ahead warnings of drought, through to planning for flood response based on anticipation provided by subseasonal forecasts.

The work of the project will be highlighted in this presentation, particularly focusing on the 2018 March-May season; the wettest ever recorded in the region when over 300 people lost their lives. The representation of processes leading to predictability at subseasonal and seasonal timescales will be assessed, alongside an evaluation of the performance of S2S models throughout this season as well as a discussion of the potential actions which could have been triggered by these forecasts.