Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles
2014 Indo-Pak’s cataclysmic flood: Can potential future plights could be alleviated with currently available forecasting skill ?
Speaker
Description
In September 2014, a devastating flood wrought havoc in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining areas of the Pakistan. The very heavy rainfall during last stage of monsoon has resulted in a devastating flood which caused an estimated death toll well above 2000 peoples over the region. After a disaster on this scale and its associated implications in various sectors, the question arises whether strategies of S2S prediction that have proved useful elsewhere can they be adapted to the complex terrain of Himalayas and adjoining areas as well? The aim of this study is in two-folds. Firstly, it attempts to assess the predictive skill of a set of S2S model products and identify forecast windows of opportunity. Secondly, an attempt has been also made to simulate the above mentioned event at higher resolution using a convective permitting model. Finally, the plausible reasons of model failure, potential sources of predictability and how S2S framework may play a key role in addressing such issues is highlighted.
Key words: Flood, S2S, predictability.