Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

The potential of early warning for high impact events, such as extreme temperature conditions, is explored using the S2S model data. At medium range, predictions for severe temperature conditions can be directly based on temperature forecast probabilities. At the extended range, we argue that the predictable signal for severe and persistent warm/cold spells is better exploited by the use of large-scale circulation patterns. We show that several S2S systems exhibit useful skill well beyond 10 days. In addition the predictive skill of cold events can be significantly enhanced by the MJO activity via tropical-extratropical teleconnections.