Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

Recent years have seen a rapid growth in the development of “climate services for energy” across Europe. There remains, however, only a relatively modest level of understanding of how meteorological skill in probabilistic numerical weather predictions transfers into skill in simulating the behaviour of a complex system such as a power network.

At S2S time-horizons (weeks to months), results from recent climate services for energy projects involving the University of Reading are presented. Challenges in estimating primary energy quantities – such as wind power generation - from available meteorological and power-system data are discussed (e.g., availability of high frequency meteorological output, poor quality power system records, and discrepancies between reanalyses). A new method to identify the dominant meteorological drivers of variability on the European power network is presented and contrasted to traditional “grid point” forecasting approaches.