Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

Tuesday, 2 April
13:15 → 13:45
Registration
 30m
13:45 → 14:15
Introduction
Speaker: Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
Predictability and dynamics: Chair - John Methven (University of Reading)
14:15 → 14:45
Flow-dependent predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts
Speaker: Mio Matsueda (Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
14:45 → 15:15
The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction using the S2S database
Speaker: Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
15:15 → 15:30
Stratospheric influences on subseasonal predictability of European energy-industry-relevant parameters
Speaker: Dominik Büeler (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research + Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
15:30 → 16:00
Coffee break
Weather Room

Weather Room

 		30m
Predictability and dynamics: Chair - Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
16:00 → 16:15
Understanding predictability of the MJO in S2S enesemble
Speaker: Shuyi Chen (University of Washington)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
16:15 → 16:30
MJO Impact on Temperature Extremes over Australia during Austral Spring
Speaker: Harry Hendon (Bureau of Meteorology)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
16:30 → 16:45
Extratropical predictability from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the MJO in S2S models
Speaker: Chaim Garfinkel (Hebrew University)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
16:45 → 17:00
Intra-seasonal and Seasonal Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropics
Speaker: Cristiana Stan (GMU)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
17:00 → 17:15
Subseasonal Forecast Skill over the Northern Polar Region in Three Operational S2S Systems
Speaker: Hai Lin (Environment and Climate Change Canada)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
17:15 → 19:15
Posters and drinks reception
Lobby/Weather Room

Lobby/Weather Room

 		2h
Wednesday, 3 April
Database Technical Development: Chair - Richard Mladek (ECMWF)
09:00 → 09:25
The technical development of the TIGGE and S2S databases
Speaker: Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		25m
09:25 → 09:45
TIGGE and S2S status and developments at CMA
Speakers: Xing Hu (China Meteorological Administration ), FeiFei Yang (China Meteorological Administration)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		20m
09:45 → 10:15
The S2S Data Base in IRI Data Library: Maprooms and online analysis tools
Speaker: Andrew Robertson (International Research Institute for Climate and Society)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
10:15 → 10:30
Ensemble forecasting at ECMWF
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 10:45
The global ICON-EPS: a contribution to TIGGE?
Speaker: Michael Denhard (Deutscher Wetterdienst)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:45 → 11:15
Coffee break
Weather Room

Weather Room

 		30m
Database Technical Development: Chair - Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)
11:15 → 11:30
An Assessment of Predictability and Prediction of NCEP GEFS for Subseasonal Forecast
Speaker: Yuejian Zhu (EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
11:30 → 11:45
Using the S2S Database to Evaluate the Performance of the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Ensemble
Speaker: Matthew Janiga (Naval Research Laboratory)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
Prediction and verification: Chair - Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)
11:45 → 12:15
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves
Speaker: Tilmann Gneiting (Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
12:15 → 12:45
A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal precipitation predictions
Speaker: Caio Coelho (CPTEC/INPE)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
12:45 → 13:00
Spread of global 2-meter temperature analyses: disentangling forecast systematic errors from mis-estimation of ensemble spread
Speaker: Tom Hamill (NOAA ESRL PSD)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
13:00 → 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Prediction and verification: Chair - Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
14:00 → 14:15
Use of TIGGE/Global Ensembles in Tropical Cyclone Research and Operational Forecasts
Speaker: Helen Titley (Met Office)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
14:15 → 14:30
Achieving seamless verification across sub-seasonal time scales from weather to climate
Speaker: Paul Dirmeyer (George Mason University)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
14:30 → 14:45
Uncertainties in Extended-Range Precipitation Forecasts: Model Biases or Predictability Limits
Speaker: Mingyue Chen (Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
14:45 → 15:00
Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather via Circulation Regimes
Speaker: Kathleen Pegion (George Mason University)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
15:00 → 15:15
Ensemble forecasts for the midlatitudes on sub-seasonal time scales (10-60 days): exploring new products for predicting Atlantic-European weather regimes
Speaker: Christian M. Grams (IMK-TRO, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
15:15 → 15:45
Coffee break
Weather Room

Weather Room

 		30m
Prediction and verification: Chair - David Richardson (ECMWF)
15:45 → 16:00
Prospects for subseasonal sea ice prediction at both poles
Speaker: Lorenzo Zampieri (Alfred Wegener Institute)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
16:00 → 16:15
2014 Indo-Pak’s cataclysmic flood: Can potential future plights could be alleviated with currently available forecasting skill ?
Speaker: Pushp Raj Tiwari (Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics Research, University of Hertfordshire)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
16:15 → 16:30
Assessment of prediction skill for sub-seasonal rainfall variability over Brazil in ensemble-based prediction systems
Speaker: Amulya Chevuturi (NCAS)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
16:30 → 16:45
Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and its Climate Impacts with a Multi-Model Ensemble
Speaker: Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
16:45 → 17:00
A zonal component of monsoons and the variability in the strength of the Madden-Julian Oscillation events
Speaker: Samson Hagos (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
15m
17:00 → 19:00
Poster session
Lobby/Weather Room

Lobby/Weather Room

 		2h
19:00 → 21:00
Workshop dinner
ECMWF Restaurant

ECMWF Restaurant

 		2h
Thursday, 4 April
Prediction and Verification Multi-model approaches to prediction: Chair - Craig Bishop (NRL)
09:00 → 09:30
Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecast Performance and Prediction of Ensemble Forecast Error
Speaker: James Goerss (SAIC, NRL Monterey)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
09:30 → 10:00
Multi-model Prediction on Subseasonal Timescales at the US NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Approaches to Calibration and the Identification of Forecasts of Opportunity
Speaker: Daniel Collins (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
10:00 → 10:15
Isotonic Distributional Regression (IDR): A powerful nonparametric calibration technique
Speaker: Johanna Ziegel (University of Bern)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:15 → 10:30
A Bayesian framework for postprocessing multi-ensemble weather forecasts
Speaker: Clair Barnes (Department of Statistical Science, University College London)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 10:45
Benefits of a multimodel approach for forecasting precipitation over New Caledonia (SW Pacific) at S2S timescales
Speaker: Damien Specq (Météo-France)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:45 → 11:15
Coffee break
Weather Room

Weather Room

 		30m
Prediction and Verification Multi-model approaches to prediction: Chair - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
11:15 → 11:30
Subseasonal Prediction of European Summer Heat Waves in the S2S Hindcast Ensembles
Speaker: Ole Wulff (ETH Zurich)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
11:30 → 11:45
Experimental subseasonal forecasting of atmospheric river variations for western N. America during Winters 2017-2018 and 2018-2019
Speaker: Michael DeFlorio (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
11:45 → 12:00
Use of S2S forecasts for humanitarian decision making in Kenya
Speaker: Dave MacLeod (University of Oxford)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
Application studies: Chair - Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
12:00 → 12:30
Quantifying and attributing predictable signals on sub-seasonal timescales
Speaker: Dan Rowlands (Citadel)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
12:30 → 12:45
Digiscape: A one-platform solution for seasonal climate integration into Agriculture.
Speaker: Jaclyn Brown (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
12:45 → 13:00
A flood alert system for Switzerland based on integrated water vapor fluxes
Speaker: Jonas Bhend (MeteoSwiss)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
13:00 → 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 → 14:15
Description of working groups
 15m
14:15 → 15:30
Working groups
 1h 15m
15:30 → 16:30
Posters and coffee break
Lobby/Weather Room

Lobby/Weather Room

 		1h
16:30 → 18:00
Working groups
 1h 30m
Friday, 5 April
Application studies: Chair - Andrew Robertson (IRI)
09:00 → 09:30
Transmuting S2S forecasts into applications
Speaker: Ángel G. Muñoz (IRI - Columbia University)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		30m
09:30 → 09:45
The S2S4E project, sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for energy
Speaker: Andrea Manrique-Suñén (Barcelona Supercomputing Center)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
09:45 → 10:00
Drought Monitoring and Prediction Using Sub-Seasonal Predictions
Speaker: Yuhei Takaya (MRI/JMA)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:00 → 10:15
Developing capacity of Southeast Asian countries to apply subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts in impact forecasting tools
Speaker: Thea Turkington (Meteorological Service Singapore)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:15 → 10:30
Subseasonal forecasting for the telecommunication network
Speaker: David Brayshaw (University of Reading)
Lecture Theatre

Lecture Theatre

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 11:00
Coffee break
Weather Room

Weather Room

 		30m
11:00 → 12:00
Working groups
 1h
12:00 → 13:00
Plenary session
 1h

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