ECMWF | Reading | 3-6 June 2019
“Using ECMWF’s Forecasts” provides a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECMWF data and products. It is open to all ECMWF forecast users around the world and provides an opportunity to give feedback to ECMWF on forecast performance and on the range of available products, and to learn about recent developments of ECMWF’s forecasting system.
2019 theme: “The strength of ensembles”
National weather services and private weather providers have recognised the importance of ensemble forecasts and that information about uncertainty improves the ability to make decisions based on weather forecasts. ‘Forecasts are not complete without information on uncertainty’ was one of the closing messages of a past UEF meeting. In 2019 we returned to the topic of ensembles and their strength.
Twenty-five years ago ECMWF was one of the first forecasting centres to start issuing operational ensemble forecasts. The implementation of these ensembles induced a paradigm shift in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Centres moved from providing a single forecast to issuing a range of forecasts that can be used to identify possible future scenarios, to compute the probability of events of interest, and in general to estimate forecast confidence levels. Today, ensembles are routinely used to provide estimates of the probability distributions of analyses and forecasts. Great progress has been made to aid their visualisation and communication to wider audiences.
The UEF meeting offered an opportunity for participants to showcase the strength of ensembles. The meeting provided a framework where participants shared their experiences with ECMWF data and provided feedback on ECMWF products.