Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)
EFI based forecasting of extreme bora event - operational view
Speaker
Description
Bora is a gusty downslope northeast wind that blows at the eastern Adriatic coast and similar winds exist at many other places on all continents. At coastal mountain lee areas, hurricane speeds of Bora are not unusual, but the event that occurred on February 23rd 2019. breaks several records, with maximum gust of 103 knots observed in Makarska.
There has been substantial progress in Bora observations and measurements, understanding and modeling over the past 25 years but complete understanding is still not completed and therefore every case of forecasting Bora is a challenge. Since autumn 2017 EcCharts are commonly used in Croatia control as a forecasting tool and this poster gives a brief overview how the uses of ECMWF ensemble products were valuable additional ingredients in successful forecast of this extreme event. Encouraged with EFI values, additional warnings, beside standard aviation ones, were performed and according to users reaction the question was raised, is there an extreme weather procedures needed.