Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)

The importance of seasonal forecasts especially for the developing sectors in recent years cannot be ignored. Therefore, ECMWF seasonal forecasts are used, a more useful ensemble system perspective for 15 points representing whole Turkey has been developed and the seasonal forecasts has become more convenient to be used by the various sectors, in this study. With the developed method, ECMWF seasonal prediction model outputs were corrected with the data observed by Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) by using statistical methods (ME, MAE, SDE, RMSE etc.) and the characteristics of the model errors were determined for the selected 15 points. This correction is based on the first 3 month time steps of the ensembles. Following this correction, regression analysis for the same 15 points completed and intended to increase the accuracy and availability of ECMWF's seasonal ensemble prediction system, within the boundaries of Turkey.