Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)

ECMWF is the computational centre for the European and Global Flood Awareness Systems [EFAS & GloFAS respectively], on behalf of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. These produce flood forecasts across Europe and the globe with lead times of 10 and 30 days respectively. The aim is to provide flood forecasts at the medium range which are consistent across national boundaries.

Meteorological forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble of precipitation, temperature and wind speed are used as forcings for a hydrological model which produces ensemble estimates of river discharge. Using ensemble forecasts benefits the communication of flood risk uncertainty, especially beyond the short range. Within Europe the probabilistic information are used to decide when flood notifications are issued to EFAS partner institutions.

This presentation will explain the origin and setup of the EFAS and GloFAS systems. Use cases of how the probabilistic forecast information have been used to provide guidance on preparing and responding to flooding events will also be given.