Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)

The presentation will review forecast product development activities at ECMWF over the past year, in response to user requests and feedback. New forecast outputs include test products to help identify the risk of cold spells over Europe, and the experimental post-processed ‘point rainfall’ which accounts for sub-grid variability and situation- dependent bias. The next model upgrade will introduce several new forecast output fields, including wind at 200m above the ground, a new Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for to highlight the large-scale water vapour transport in the atmosphere, together with new EFI-related products for extremes in the extended range. The new ERA5 reanalysis data is now available for 1979 onwards, and will be used as the initial conditions for the operational reforecasts. A new set of ocean forecast outputs will be introduced. Other changes, including the availability of products from the 06 and 18 UTC forecasts will also be addressed.