Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)

The talk will highlight what steps have been taken to ‘develop an integrated global model of the Earth system to produce forecasts with increasing fidelity on time ranges up to one year ahead. This will tackle the most difficult problems in numerical weather prediction such as the currently low level of predictive skill of European weather for a month ahead.’, three years on since the approval...

ECMWF is the computational centre for the European and Global Flood Awareness Systems [EFAS & GloFAS respectively], on behalf of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. These produce flood forecasts across Europe and the globe with lead times of 10 and 30 days respectively. The aim is to provide flood forecasts at the medium range which are consistent across national boundaries....

In line with its long-term Strategy, ECMWF has recently developed test products for the likelihood of regime transitions associated with the occurrence of severe cold spells, and for the probabilities of occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings and weather regimes. The aim is to identify the main weather regimes in the Euro-Atlantic region and to predict the probability that future weather...