Virtual training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems

Monday, 23 March
09:15 → 10:15
Introduction
Speakers: Andy Brown (ECMWF), Sarah Keeley (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
10:15 → 10:30
Break

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 11:30
Introduction to probabilistic seamless forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
11:30 → 11:35
Comfort break

ECMWF

 		5m
11:35 → 12:35
Chaos and predictability limits
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
13:15 → 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

 		45m
14:00 → 15:00
Weather regimes
Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
15:00 → 15:15
Break

ECMWF

 		15m
15:15 → 16:15
Diagnostics
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
Tuesday, 24 March
09:15 → 10:15
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere variability
Speaker: Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)

ECMWF

 		1h
10:15 → 10:30
Break

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 11:30
Coupled land-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
11:30 → 11:35
Comfort break

ECMWF

 		5m
11:35 → 12:35
Coupled sea ice-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
12:35 → 13:30
Lunch break

ECMWF

 		55m
13:30 → 14:30
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
Wednesday, 25 March
09:15 → 10:15
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - MJO
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
10:15 → 10:30
Break

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 11:30
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - ENSO
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
11:30 → 11:35
Comfort break

ECMWF

 		5m
11:35 → 12:35
Overview of forecast systems in extended and long range
Speakers: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
12:35 → 13:30
Lunch break

ECMWF

 		55m
13:30 → 14:30
Ensemble verification (1)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
Thursday, 26 March
09:15 → 10:15
Ensemble verification (2)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
10:15 → 10:30
Coffee break

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 11:30
Intial condition uncertainty
Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
11:30 → 11:35
Comfort break

ECMWF

 		5m
11:35 → 12:35
Model uncertainty
Speaker: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
12:35 → 13:30
Lunch break

ECMWF

 		55m
13:30 → 14:30
Initialization techniques in coupled forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
Friday, 27 March
09:15 → 10:15
Diagnostics (2)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
10:15 → 10:30
Coffee break

ECMWF

 		15m
10:30 → 11:30
Post-processing of EPSs reforecasts - reliability diagrams
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
11:30 → 11:35
Comfort break

ECMWF

 		5m
11:35 → 12:35
Assessing the skill of long range forecast & the predictability paradox
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

ECMWF

 		1h
12:35 → 13:30
Lunch Break

ECMWF

 		55m
13:30 → 14:30
Question and Answer Session
 1h

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