Virtual Event: Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2020)

An update is given on the evolution of forecast skill of the IFS in the medium and extended range. It is shown that the implementation of model cycle 46r1 in June 2019 has had a significant positive impact on both upper-air and near-surface variables. Causes of persistent systematic errors in near-surface forecasts are discussed and recent steps undertaken for reducing them are outlined. Geographical variations in the evolution of upper-air skill over the last decade are presented. The inclusion of observation error in ensemble verification, which has already been in place for upper-air variables, has now been extended to near-surface variables, and the latest results are discussed.