Name: Workshop on model uncertainty
Start: 2022-05-09T09:00:00+01:00
End: 2022-05-12T17:00:00+01:00
Location: ECMWF

Overview
Presentations and recordings
Posters
Organising committee
Contact

Material Package

Added Since

Include only attachments uploaded after this date

Include*

Everything

Specific sessions

Specific contributions

Specific days

Sessions*

Morning session

Afternoon session

Morning session

Afternoon session

Morning session 1

Morning session 2

Afternoon session

Morning session

Afternoon session

Include materials from selected sessions

Contributions*

A stochastic shallow convection scheme for operational use – impact on ensemble spread (in session "Afternoon session")

Accounting for Land Model Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Prediction Ensemble Systems: Toward Ensemble-Based Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation (in session "Morning session")

Coffee / posters (in-person)

Considerations when evaluating ensembles (in session "Morning session 1")

Cross-validating the impact of stochastic physics on ensemble covariances directly with observations (in session "Morning session 1")

Development and evaluation of an "optimal" perturbed parameter approach in the convective-scale AROME-EPS (in session "Afternoon session")

Impact of ocean stochastic physics on the UFS subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast (in session "Morning session")

Impact of Spatial and Temporal Scales of Perturbations in a Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations Scheme on the Spread-Error Relationship in a Global Ensemble Prediction System (in session "Afternoon session")

Impact of Stochastic Methods on the Forecast Skill of the Navy ESPC Ensemble (in session "Afternoon session")

Implementation and testing of stochastic physics within FV3-LAM and RRFS prototype ensembles using the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) (in session "Afternoon session")

Implementing Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations in a Global Ensemble System (in session "Afternoon session")

Model error representations in the convection-permitting AROME model (in session "Morning session")

Model Uncertainty - MIP: constraining stochastic parametrisations using high-resolution simulations (in session "Morning session")

Modulation of Arctic teleconnections via stochastic sea-ice and ocean parameterisations (in session "Morning session")

MU representation in the IFS (in session "Morning session")

On cellular automata in stochastic convective parameterizations over the years - feats and defeats (in session "Morning session 2")

On inevitable imperfections in NWP and stochastic remedies (in session "Morning session")

Over-run/discussion (in session "Afternoon session")

Over-run/discussion (in session "Morning session 1")

Over-run/discussion (in session "Morning session")

Over-run/discussion (in session "Afternoon session")

Over-run/discussion (in session "Morning session 2")

Over-run/discussion (in session "Afternoon session")

Posters (Gather.Town)

Posters (Gather.Town) (in session "Afternoon session")

Posters (Gather.Town)

Posters (in-person)

Registration

Representing uncertainties due to modest numbers of coherent sub-grid structures (in session "Morning session 2")

SPP in a convection permitting model - HarmonEPS (in session "Morning session")

Stochastic Parametrisation: Its scientific basis and impacts (in session "Morning session")

Towards a dedicated convection-permitting ensemble in the operational NWP systems at Météo-France for the tropics (in session "Afternoon session")

Uniform distributions and correlated perturbations in the SPP scheme of HarmonEPS (in session "Morning session 2")

Upper tropospheric divergence variability in organized convection (in session "Morning session")

Welcome (in session "Morning session")

Working group summaries / Closing discussion (in session "Afternoon session")

Working groups / Discussion

Include materials from selected contributions

Events scheduled on*

09/05/2022

10/05/2022

11/05/2022

12/05/2022

Include materials from sessions/contributions scheduled on the selected dates

#UncertaintyWS22

Working Group 1 report

Working Group 2 report

Working Group 3 report

Workshop photos