Workshop on model uncertainty
| Monday, 9 May | |||
| → |
Registration
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h 15m |
|
Morning session
Chair:
Richard Forbes
(ECMWF),
Sarah-Jane Lock
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Welcome
Speaker:
Andy Brown
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
On inevitable imperfections in NWP and stochastic remedies
Speaker:
Martin Leutbecher
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Upper tropospheric divergence variability in organized convection
Speaker:
Edward Groot
(Johannes Gutenberg Universität)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
SPP in a convection permitting model - HarmonEPS
Speaker:
Inger-Lise Frogner
(Norwegian Meteorological Institute)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Posters (Gather.Town)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Lunch break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
45m |
|
Afternoon session
Chair:
Gianpaolo Balsamo
(ECMWF),
Sarah Keeley
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
A stochastic shallow convection scheme for operational use – impact on ensemble spread
Speaker:
Maike Ahlgrimm
(DWD)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Development and evaluation of an "optimal" perturbed parameter approach in the convective-scale AROME-EPS
Speaker:
Meryl Wimmer
(Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Posters (Gather.Town)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Implementing Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations in a Global Ensemble System
Speaker:
Ron McTaggart-Cowan
(Environment and Climate Change Canada)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Implementation and testing of stochastic physics within FV3-LAM and RRFS prototype ensembles using the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)
Speaker:
Jeff Beck
(NOAA / GSL)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Welcome drinks
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h |
| Tuesday, 10 May | |||
| → |
Coffee / posters (in-person)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
|
Morning session
Chair:
Martin Leutbecher
(ECMWF),
Richard Forbes
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Stochastic Parametrisation: Its scientific basis and impacts
Speaker:
Tim Palmer
(University of Oxford)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Impact of ocean stochastic physics on the UFS subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast
Speaker:
Bing Fu
(IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
MU representation in the IFS
Speaker:
Sarah-Jane Lock
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Model error representations in the convection-permitting AROME model
Speaker:
Axelle Fleury
(Météo-France)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Model Uncertainty - MIP: constraining stochastic parametrisations using high-resolution simulations
Speaker:
Hannah Christensen
(University of Oxford)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Posters (Gather.Town)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Lunch break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
45m |
| → |
Working groups / Discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h 15m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Posters (Gather.Town)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
|
Afternoon session
Chair:
Philip Pegion
(NOAA/PSL),
Martin Leutbecher
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Impact of Spatial and Temporal Scales of Perturbations in a Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations Scheme on the Spread-Error Relationship in a Global Ensemble Prediction System
Speaker:
Leo Separovic
(Environment and Climate Change Canada)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Posters (in-person)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| Wednesday, 11 May | |||
| → |
Coffee / posters (in-person)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
|
Morning session 1
Chair:
Inger-Lise Frogner
(Norwegian Meteorological Institute),
Marcin Chrust
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Considerations when evaluating ensembles
Speaker:
Nigel Roberts
(Met Office)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Cross-validating the impact of stochastic physics on ensemble covariances directly with observations
Speaker:
Olaf Stiller
(Deutscher Wetterdienst)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
|
Morning session 2
Chair:
Warren Tennant
(Met Office),
Sarah-Jane Lock
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
On cellular automata in stochastic convective parameterizations over the years - feats and defeats
Speaker:
Lisa Bengtsson
(NOAA ESRL PSL and CIRES)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Representing uncertainties due to modest numbers of coherent sub-grid structures
Speaker:
Robert Plant
(University of Reading)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Uniform distributions and correlated perturbations in the SPP scheme of HarmonEPS
Speaker:
Aristofanis Tsiringakis
(Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Lunch break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
45m |
| → |
Working groups / Discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h 15m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Posters (Gather.Town)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
|
Afternoon session
Chair:
Olaf Stiller
(DWD),
Chris Roberts
(ECWMF)
|
|||
| → |
Towards a dedicated convection-permitting ensemble in the operational NWP systems at Météo-France for the tropics
Speaker:
Olivier Nuissier
(CNRM - Météo-France)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Impact of Stochastic Methods on the Forecast Skill of the Navy ESPC Ensemble
Speaker:
William Crawford
(US Naval Research Laboratory)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Posters (in-person)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Workshop dinner (Bel and the Dragon)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
2h |
| Thursday, 12 May | |||
| → |
Coffee / posters (in-person)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
|
Morning session
Chair:
Aristofanis Tsiringakis
(KNMI),
Gianpaolo Balsamo
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Modulation of Arctic teleconnections via stochastic sea-ice and ocean parameterisations
Speaker:
Kristian Strommen
(University of Oxford)
|
Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
30m |
| → |
Accounting for Land Model Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Prediction Ensemble Systems: Toward Ensemble-Based Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation
Speaker:
Clara Draper
(NOAA ESRL PSL)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Over-run/discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
Posters (in-person)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
30m |
| → |
Working groups / Discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h 15m |
| → |
Lunch break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
45m |
|
Afternoon session
Chair:
Martin Leutbecher
(ECMWF),
Richard Forbes
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Working group summaries / Closing discussion
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h 30m |