Workshop on model uncertainty

Monday, 9 May
9:00 AM 10:15 AM
Registration

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
Morning session
Chair: Richard Forbes (ECMWF) , Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
10:15 AM 10:30 AM
Welcome
Speaker: Andy Brown (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
15m
10:30 AM 11:00 AM
On inevitable imperfections in NWP and stochastic remedies
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 AM 11:30 AM
Upper tropospheric divergence variability in organized convection
Speaker: Edward Groot (Johannes Gutenberg Universität)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:30 AM 12:00 PM
SPP in a convection permitting model - HarmonEPS
Speaker: Inger-Lise Frogner (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:00 PM 12:15 PM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
15m
12:15 PM 12:45 PM
Posters (Gather.Town)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:45 PM 1:30 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
45m
Afternoon session
Chair: Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF) , Sarah Keeley (ECMWF)
1:30 PM 2:00 PM
A stochastic shallow convection scheme for operational use – impact on ensemble spread
Speaker: Maike Ahlgrimm (DWD)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
2:00 PM 2:30 PM
Development and evaluation of an "optimal" perturbed parameter approach in the convective-scale AROME-EPS
Speaker: Meryl Wimmer (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
2:30 PM 2:45 PM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
15m
2:45 PM 3:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
15m
3:00 PM 3:30 PM
Posters (Gather.Town)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
3:30 PM 4:00 PM
Implementing Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations in a Global Ensemble System
Speaker: Ron McTaggart-Cowan (Environment and Climate Change Canada)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
4:00 PM 4:30 PM
Implementation and testing of stochastic physics within FV3-LAM and RRFS prototype ensembles using the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)
Speaker: Jeff Beck (NOAA / GSL)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
4:30 PM 5:00 PM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
30m
5:00 PM 6:00 PM
Welcome drinks

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Tuesday, 10 May
9:00 AM 9:30 AM
Coffee / posters (in-person)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Morning session
Chair: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF) , Richard Forbes (ECMWF)
9:30 AM 10:00 AM
Stochastic Parametrisation: Its scientific basis and impacts
Speaker: Tim Palmer (University of Oxford)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 AM 10:30 AM
Impact of ocean stochastic physics on the UFS subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast
Speaker: Bing Fu (IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 AM 10:45 AM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
15m
10:45 AM 11:00 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
15m
11:00 AM 11:30 AM
MU representation in the IFS
Speaker: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:30 AM 12:00 PM
Model error representations in the convection-permitting AROME model
Speaker: Axelle Fleury (Météo-France)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:00 PM 12:15 PM
Model Uncertainty - MIP: constraining stochastic parametrisations using high-resolution simulations
Speaker: Hannah Christensen (University of Oxford)

ECMWF

Reading
15m
12:15 PM 12:45 PM
Posters (Gather.Town)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:45 PM 1:30 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
45m
1:30 PM 2:45 PM
Working groups / Discussion

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
2:45 PM 3:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
15m
3:00 PM 3:30 PM
Posters (Gather.Town)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Afternoon session
Chair: Philip Pegion (NOAA/PSL) , Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
3:30 PM 4:00 PM
Impact of Spatial and Temporal Scales of Perturbations in a Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations Scheme on the Spread-Error Relationship in a Global Ensemble Prediction System
Speaker: Leo Separovic (Environment and Climate Change Canada)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
4:00 PM 4:30 PM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
30m
4:30 PM 5:00 PM
Posters (in-person)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Wednesday, 11 May
9:00 AM 9:30 AM
Coffee / posters (in-person)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Morning session 1
Chair: Inger-Lise Frogner (Norwegian Meteorological Institute) , Marcin Chrust (ECMWF)
9:30 AM 10:00 AM
Considerations when evaluating ensembles
Speaker: Nigel Roberts (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 AM 10:30 AM
Cross-validating the impact of stochastic physics on ensemble covariances directly with observations
Speaker: Olaf Stiller (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 AM 10:45 AM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
15m
10:45 AM 11:00 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
15m
Morning session 2
Chair: Warren Tennant (Met Office) , Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
11:00 AM 11:30 AM
On cellular automata in stochastic convective parameterizations over the years - feats and defeats
Speaker: Lisa Bengtsson (NOAA ESRL PSL and CIRES)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:30 AM 12:00 PM
Representing uncertainties due to modest numbers of coherent sub-grid structures
Speaker: Robert Plant (University of Reading)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:00 PM 12:30 PM
Uniform distributions and correlated perturbations in the SPP scheme of HarmonEPS
Speaker: Aristofanis Tsiringakis (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:30 PM 12:45 PM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
15m
12:45 PM 1:30 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
45m
1:30 PM 2:45 PM
Working groups / Discussion

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
2:45 PM 3:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
15m
3:00 PM 3:30 PM
Posters (Gather.Town)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Afternoon session
Chair: Olaf Stiller (DWD) , Chris Roberts (ECWMF)
3:30 PM 4:00 PM
Towards a dedicated convection-permitting ensemble in the operational NWP systems at Météo-France for the tropics
Speaker: Olivier Nuissier (CNRM - Météo-France)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
4:00 PM 4:30 PM
Impact of Stochastic Methods on the Forecast Skill of the Navy ESPC Ensemble
Speaker: William Crawford (US Naval Research Laboratory)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
4:30 PM 5:00 PM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
30m
5:00 PM 5:30 PM
Posters (in-person)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
6:00 PM 8:00 PM
Workshop dinner (Bel and the Dragon)

ECMWF

Reading
2h
Thursday, 12 May
9:00 AM 9:30 AM
Coffee / posters (in-person)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Morning session
Chair: Aristofanis Tsiringakis (KNMI) , Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF)
9:30 AM 10:00 AM
Modulation of Arctic teleconnections via stochastic sea-ice and ocean parameterisations
Speaker: Kristian Strommen (University of Oxford)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

30m
10:00 AM 10:30 AM
Accounting for Land Model Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Prediction Ensemble Systems: Toward Ensemble-Based Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation
Speaker: Clara Draper (NOAA ESRL PSL)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 AM 10:45 AM
Over-run/discussion

ECMWF

Reading
15m
10:45 AM 11:00 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
15m
11:00 AM 11:30 AM
Posters (in-person)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:30 AM 12:45 PM
Working groups / Discussion

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
12:45 PM 1:30 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
45m
Afternoon session
Chair: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF) , Richard Forbes (ECMWF)
1:30 PM 3:00 PM
Working group summaries / Closing discussion

ECMWF

Reading
1h 30m

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