Advances in numerical weather prediction mean that model output is more accurate, and with an increasing array of variables and ensembles. It is good to discuss how best to chart this model output to be easily digestible to a wide cross section of forecasters and users.
It is also important to ask what is missing from the model output - the known unknowns – and how to communicate these...
During 2020-2021, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) received an award from the U.S. Department of Energy to simulate and develop a baseline for weather and climate simulations at 1-km resolution, using the Summit supercomputer, hosted at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). The ECMWF hydrostatic Integrated...
ECMWF plans to introduce the next major upgrade of its seasonal forecasting system, SEAS6, in 2024. Increased computing resources will allow us to improve the range and structure of the forecasts and supporting re-forecasts. This can be done in various ways - increased ensemble sizes, more frequent issuing of forecasts, longer forecast ranges for ENSO outlooks, and an increased range of years...
UEF2022 photos