Using ECMWF’s Forecasts (UEF2024)

Based on code ported from the Met Office, and as part of a collaborative effort connected to the Extratropical Cyclone product suite, ECMWF has been testing out a new set of medium range products related to the "density of fronts" across the ensemble. Products from each data time include the front density itself, and also a list of the "most representative member" for each lead time. Assignment of "most representative" is based on identifying the member whose fronts match up best with the front density fields. In addition, various graph-format products are available to highlight, for example, forecast confidence based on front density, and how representative the unperturbed run is, at the different lead times.

This short presentation will describe the products using examples, and discuss potential uses. We will also touch on the strengths and weaknesses of front-density-based products from different user perspectives.