Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)

Progressive warnings with conservative forecasting
Elín Björk Jónasdóttir, Group leader of Weather Services
Icelandic Meteorological Office

At the Icelandic Meteorological Office the use of Ensemble forecasts had a relatively slow start. The original resolution of the ENS system, along with limited resources was at first the main reason for IMO forecasters not to dive into the world of ensamble prediction. Within the past few years there has been a change in the way forecasters at IMO produce forecasts. We are still quite conservative in our day to day medium range forecasts, but when it comes to high impact weather forecasts and warnings, products such as SOT and EFI for precipitation or wind, the strike probability of cyclones and frontal systems have become a staple in our forecasting routine.
A new warning system, based on likelihood and societal impact was launched in 2017, and in the past year these products have become even more important as we learn to estimate predictability and communicate it to the public and stakeholders.
In this lecture I will briefly discuss the use of ENS products from the ECMWF in correlation with warnings issued by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and how the warnings have changed as forecasters learn to use new tools and visualization from the ECMWF.