Annual Seminar 2019
| Monday, 2 September | |||
| → |
Registration and coffee
|
45m | |
| → |
Welcome and opening
Speaker:
Andy Brown
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
|
Session 1: Basis for predictability at the extended and seasonal range
Chair:
Tim Stockdale
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Introduction and arrangements
Speaker:
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |
| → |
A personal perspective on predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time-scales
Speaker:
Brian Hoskins
(University of Reading & Imperial College London)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h |
| → |
Taming the butterfly effect to reach subseasonal and seasonal predictability
Speaker:
Roberto Buizza
(Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
Weather Room, Lobby
Weather Room, Lobby |
25m |
| → |
Predictability associated with teleconnections from tropical phenomena
Speaker:
Franco Molteni
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
|
Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initialization requirements
Chair:
Gianpaolo Balsamo
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
The complexity of ENSO and its impacts: lessons learnt from initialized predictions
Speaker:
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Express poster presentations
Chair:
Anca Brookshaw
(ECMWF)
|
20m | |
| → |
Poster session 1 and drinks reception
|
1h | |
| Tuesday, 3 September | |||
|
Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initialization requirements
Chair:
Gianpaolo Balsamo
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
The Madden-Julian Oscillation
Speaker:
Steven Woolnough
(National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Multi-Scale Impacts of Extratropical Ocean on the Atmosphere
Speaker:
Hisashi Nakamura
(RCAST, University of Tokyo)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
Weather Room, Lobby
Weather Room, Lobby |
30m |
| → |
Land surface as a predictability driver in Subseasonal and seasonal Forecasts
Speaker:
Emanuel Dutra
(Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
High-latitude processes in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions
Speaker:
Steffen Tietsche
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Lunch break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h |
| → |
The role of atmospheric composition in the predictability at the S2S scale
Speaker:
Angela Benedetti
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
The role of the stratosphere for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting
Speaker:
Daniela Domeisen
(ETH Zurich)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
Weather Room, Lobby
Weather Room, Lobby |
20m |
| → |
Statistical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts at the extended and seasonal range
Speaker:
David Stephenson
(University of Exeter)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Express poster presentations
Chair:
Anca Brookshaw
(ECMWF)
|
20m | |
| → |
Poster session 2 and drinks
|
50m | |
| Wednesday, 4 September | |||
|
Session 3: System design
Chair:
Frederic Vitart
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
Atmospheric teleconnections, the North Atlantic Oscillation and long range forecasts of European winters
Speaker:
Adam Scaife
(Met Office Hadley Centre)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Seasonal forecasting systems: present and future
Speaker:
Tim Stockdale
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
Weather Room, Lobby
Weather Room, Lobby |
30m |
| → |
Multi-week/seasonal prediction for agricultural applications in Australia
Speaker:
Oscar Alves
(Bureau of Meteorology)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
The US Navy’s Extended-range Prediction System with High-resolution Ocean and Ice models
Speaker:
Carolyn Reynolds
(US Naval Research Laboratory)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Lunch break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h |
|
Session 4: Detecting and exploiting skill
Chair:
Antje Weisheimer
|
|||
| → |
How Using NASA’s Observations Affects the Balance Among Spatial Resolution, Ensemble Size, and Physical Complexity in the GEOS-S2S System
Speaker:
Steven Pawson
(NASA GSFC)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Comparing the Predictability and Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts
Speaker:
Timothy DelSole
(George Mason University)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
Weather Room, Lobby
Weather Room, Lobby |
20m |
| → |
Predicting high impact weather events beyond the medium range
Speaker:
Laura Ferranti
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Towards process-based narratives for seasonal climate predictions
Speaker:
Johanna Baehr
(Institute of Oceanography, CEN, Uni Hamburg)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Express poster presentations
Chair:
Anca Brookshaw
(ECMWF)
|
20m | |
| → |
Poster session 3 and pre-dinner drinks
|
1h | |
| → |
Seminar dinner
|
2h | |
| Thursday, 5 September | |||
|
Session 5: Multi-model databases for advancing science and applications
Chair:
Laura Ferranti
(ECMWF)
|
|||
| → |
What did we learn from the S2S database?
Speaker:
Frederic Vitart
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Bridging the Gap between Weather and Climate Prediction using Multi-model Ensembles
Speaker:
Kathleen Pegion
(George Mason University/COLA)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Coffee break
|
Weather Room, Lobby
Weather Room, Lobby |
30m |
| → |
Seasonal forecast data and information: the providers' perspective from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Speaker:
Anca Brookshaw
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Subseasonal and seasonal climate forecast applications
Speaker:
Francisco Doblas-Reyes
(BSC)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Lunch break
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
1h |
| → |
Analyzing causal pathways of the stratospheric polar vortex using machine learning tools
Speaker:
Marlene Kretschmer
(PIK Potsdam)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Where our science ambitions meet computing and data handling limitations
Speaker:
Peter Bauer
(ECMWF)
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
50m |
| → |
Close of seminar
|
ECMWF
Reading
|
15m |