Annual Seminar 2019

Monday, 2 September
12:30 13:15
Registration and coffee
45m
13:15 13:30
Welcome and opening
Speaker: Andy Brown (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
15m
Session 1: Basis for predictability at the extended and seasonal range
Chair: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
13:30 13:45
Introduction and arrangements
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
15m
13:45 14:45
A personal perspective on predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time-scales
Speaker: Brian Hoskins (University of Reading & Imperial College London)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:45 15:35
Taming the butterfly effect to reach subseasonal and seasonal predictability
Speaker: Roberto Buizza (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:35 16:00
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

25m
16:00 16:50
Predictability associated with teleconnections from tropical phenomena
Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initialization requirements
Chair: Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF)
16:50 17:40
The complexity of ENSO and its impacts: lessons learnt from initialized predictions
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
17:40 18:00
Express poster presentations
Chair: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
20m
18:00 19:00
Poster session 1 and drinks reception
1h
Tuesday, 3 September
Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initialization requirements
Chair: Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF)
09:10 10:00
The Madden-Julian Oscillation
Speaker: Steven Woolnough (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:00 10:50
Multi-Scale Impacts of Extratropical Ocean on the Atmosphere
Speaker: Hisashi Nakamura (RCAST, University of Tokyo)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:50 11:20
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

30m
11:20 12:10
Land surface as a predictability driver in Subseasonal and seasonal Forecasts
Speaker: Emanuel Dutra (Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
12:10 13:00
High-latitude processes in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
13:00 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 14:50
The role of atmospheric composition in the predictability at the S2S scale
Speaker: Angela Benedetti (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
14:50 15:40
The role of the stratosphere for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting
Speaker: Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

20m
16:00 16:50
Statistical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts at the extended and seasonal range
Speaker: David Stephenson (University of Exeter)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
16:50 17:10
Express poster presentations
Chair: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
20m
17:10 18:00
Poster session 2 and drinks
50m
Wednesday, 4 September
Session 3: System design
Chair: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
09:10 10:00
Atmospheric teleconnections, the North Atlantic Oscillation and long range forecasts of European winters
Speaker: Adam Scaife (Met Office Hadley Centre)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:00 10:50
Seasonal forecasting systems: present and future
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:50 11:20
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

30m
11:20 12:10
Multi-week/seasonal prediction for agricultural applications in Australia
Speaker: Oscar Alves (Bureau of Meteorology)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
12:10 13:00
The US Navy’s Extended-range Prediction System with High-resolution Ocean and Ice models
Speaker: Carolyn Reynolds (US Naval Research Laboratory)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
13:00 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Session 4: Detecting and exploiting skill
Chair: Antje Weisheimer
14:00 14:50
How Using NASA’s Observations Affects the Balance Among Spatial Resolution, Ensemble Size, and Physical Complexity in the GEOS-S2S System
Speaker: Steven Pawson (NASA GSFC)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
14:50 15:40
Comparing the Predictability and Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts
Speaker: Timothy DelSole (George Mason University)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

20m
16:00 16:50
Predicting high impact weather events beyond the medium range
Speaker: Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
16:50 17:40
Towards process-based narratives for seasonal climate predictions
Speaker: Johanna Baehr (Institute of Oceanography, CEN, Uni Hamburg)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
17:40 18:00
Express poster presentations
Chair: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
20m
18:00 19:00
Poster session 3 and pre-dinner drinks
1h
19:00 21:00
Seminar dinner
2h
Thursday, 5 September
Session 5: Multi-model databases for advancing science and applications
Chair: Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
09:10 10:00
What did we learn from the S2S database?
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:00 10:50
Bridging the Gap between Weather and Climate Prediction using Multi-model Ensembles
Speaker: Kathleen Pegion (George Mason University/COLA)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:50 11:20
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

30m
11:20 12:10
Seasonal forecast data and information: the providers' perspective from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Speaker: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
12:10 13:00
Subseasonal and seasonal climate forecast applications
Speaker: Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
13:00 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 14:50
Analyzing causal pathways of the stratospheric polar vortex using machine learning tools
Speaker: Marlene Kretschmer (PIK Potsdam)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
14:50 15:40
Where our science ambitions meet computing and data handling limitations
Speaker: Peter Bauer (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:40 15:55
Close of seminar

ECMWF

Reading
15m