Annual Seminar 2019

Europe/London
ECMWF

ECMWF

Reading
Description

#AS2019

Subseasonal and seasonal forecasting: recent progress and future prospects

More than two decades ago, seasonal forecasting started as a pilot project at ECMWF. Now it is a corner-stone of climate services. Originally a spin-off from seasonal forecasting, the sub-seasonal range covered the then so-called predictability desert; now it is a key building block of the seamless forecasting strategy, with clear prospects for useful skill gains at week 3 and 4.

Although the predictable processes and predictability drivers differ between the subseasonal and seasonal scales, prediction at these time ranges is a combination of initial and boundary problems. Sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions act as a bridge between weather and climate.

This seminar will review recent advances in our understanding of the predictability at these time scales. It will present current forecasting capabilities, and summarise recent but consolidated findings from numerical experimentation and exploitation of public data bases. It will also provide a perspective of incipient developments related with data exploration, forecast products and predictability drivers, which will shape the future of seamless forecasting systems.

Events team
Monday, 2 September
12:30 13:15
Registration and coffee

ECMWF

Reading
45m
13:15 13:30
Welcome and opening
Speaker: Andy Brown (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
15m
Session 1: Basis for predictability at the extended and seasonal range
Chair: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
13:30 13:45
Introduction and arrangements
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
15m
13:45 14:45
A personal perspective on predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time-scales
Speaker: Brian Hoskins (University of Reading & Imperial College London)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:45 15:35
Taming the butterfly effect to reach subseasonal and seasonal predictability
Speaker: Roberto Buizza (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:35 16:00
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

25m
16:00 16:50
Predictability associated with teleconnections from tropical phenomena
Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initilization requirements
Chair: Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
16:50 17:40
The complexity of ENSO and its impacts: lessons learnt from initialized predictions
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
17:40 18:00
Express poster presentations

ECMWF

Reading
20m
18:00 19:00
Posters and drinks reception

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Tuesday, 3 September
Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initilization requirements
Chair: Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
09:10 10:00
The Madden-Julian Oscillation
Speaker: Steven Woolnough (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:00 10:50
Multi-Scale Impacts of Extratropical Ocean on the Atmosphere
Speaker: Hisashi Nakamura (RCAST, University of Tokyo)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:50 11:20
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

30m
11:20 12:10
Land surface as a predictability driver in Subseasonal and seasonal Forecasts
Speaker: Emanuel Dutra (Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
12:10 13:00
High-latitude processes in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
13:00 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 14:50
The role of atmospheric composition in the predictability at the S2S scale
Speaker: Angela Benedetti (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
14:50 15:40
The role of the stratosphere for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting
Speaker: Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

20m
16:00 16:50
Statistical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts at the extended and seasonal range
Speaker: David Stephenson (University of Exeter)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
16:50 17:10
Express poster presentations

ECMWF

Reading
20m
17:10 18:00
Posters and drinks
Weather Room

Weather Room

50m
Wednesday, 4 September
Session 3: System design
Chair: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
09:10 10:00
Atmospheric teleconnections, the North Atlantic Oscillation and long range forecasts of European winters
Speaker: Adam Scaife (Met Office Hadley Centre)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:00 10:50
Seasonal forecasting systems: present and future
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:50 11:20
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

30m
11:20 12:10
Multi-week/seasonal prediction for agricultural applications in Australia
Speaker: Oscar Alves (Bureau of Meteorology)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
12:10 13:00
The US Navy’s Extended-range Prediction System with High-resolution Ocean and Ice models
Speaker: Carolyn Reynolds (US Naval Research Laboratory)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
13:00 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Session 4: Detecting and exploiting skill
Chair: Antje Weisheimer
14:00 14:50
How Using NASA’s Observations Affects the Balance Among Spatial Resolution, Ensemble Size, and Physical Complexity in the GEOS-S2S System
Speaker: Steven Pawson (NASA GSFC)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
14:50 15:40
Comparing the Predictability and Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts
Speaker: Timothy DelSole (George Mason University)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

20m
16:00 16:50
Predicting high impact weather events beyond the medium range
Speaker: Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
16:50 17:40
Towards process-based narratives for seasonal climate predictions
Speaker: Johanna Baehr (Institute of Oceanography, CEN, Uni Hamburg)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
17:40 18:00
Express poster presentations

ECMWF

Reading
20m
18:00 19:00
Posters and pre-dinner drinks
Weather Room

Weather Room

1h
19:00 21:00
Seminar dinner

ECMWF

Reading
2h
Thursday, 5 September
Session 5: Multi-model databases for advancing science and applications
Chair: Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
09:10 10:00
What did we learn from the S2S database?
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:00 10:50
Bridging the Gap between Weather and Climate Prediction using Multi-model Ensembles
Speaker: Kathleen Pegion (George Mason University/COLA)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
10:50 11:20
Coffee break
Weather Room, Lobby

Weather Room, Lobby

30m
11:20 12:10
Seasonal forecast data and information: the providers' perspective from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Speaker: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
12:10 13:00
Subseasonal and seasonal climate forecast applications
Speaker: Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
13:00 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 14:50
Analyzing causal pathways of the stratospheric polar vortex using machine learning tools
Speaker: Marlene Kretschmer (PIK Potsdam)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
14:50 15:40
Where our science ambitions meet computing and data handling limitations
Speaker: Peter Bauer (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
50m
15:40 15:55
Close of seminar

ECMWF

Reading
15m
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