6th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models
| Monday, 31 October | |||
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Registration and Welcome
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Registration
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Weather Room
Weather Room |
45m |
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Welcome Plenary
Speakers:
Carolyn Reynolds
(US Naval Research Laboratory),
Nils Wedi
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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15m |
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Clouds and precipitation
Chair:
Linus Magnusson
(ECMWF),
Carolyn Reynolds
(NRL)
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Keynote presentation: Representation of clouds and precipitation in storm-resolving coupled global simulations
Speaker:
Cathy Hohenegger
(Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)
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ECMWF
Reading
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45m |
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A Hybrid Cloud Fraction Scheme: Evaluation and Sensitivity to Phase Overlap
Speaker:
Kwinten Van Weverberg
(Met Office)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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The representation of convection in the Unified Model at 1.5 km to 100 m gridlength
Speaker:
Kirsty Hanley
(Met Office)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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A clearer view of cloudy skies: Understanding systematic cloud and radiation errors in the ECMWF global model
Speaker:
Richard Forbes
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Lunch break
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ECMWF
Reading
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1h 15m |
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(Sub-)tropical circulation
Chair:
Rebecca Emerton
(ECMWF),
Matthew Janiga
(NRL),
Rapporteur: Chiara De Falco
(NORCE)
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Keynote presentation: Diagnosing and Addressing Model Error in High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Speaker:
James Doyle
(Naval Research Laboratory)
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ECMWF
Reading
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45m |
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Impact of tropical eastern Pacific warming bias on Caribbean climate
Speaker:
Marta Brotons Blanes
(KNMI)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Coffee break
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ECMWF
Reading
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30m |
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Rapid development of ENSO-related seasonal forecast errors
Speaker:
Jonathan Beverley
(CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA PSL)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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On the biases in South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation simulations
Speaker:
Dipti Hingmire
(University of Victoria)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
25m |
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On the Sensitivity of the Simulated Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation to 3-Hourly Radiosonde Assimilation: A Case Study over the Western Maritime Continent
Speaker:
Joshua Lee
(Centre for Climate Research Singapore)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
25m |
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Reducing Tropical Cyclone Biases in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability
Speaker:
Stephanie Rushley
(NRC Postdoctoral Research Associate)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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The Indo-Pacific MJO pathway: Coupling, physics and continental barriers to propagation
Speaker:
Richard Neale
(National Center for Atmospheric Research)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Ice breaker and Poster session 1
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2h 30m | |
| Tuesday, 1 November | |||
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Stratosphere-Troposphere interactions
Chair:
Mark Rodwell
(ECMWF),
Ariane Frassoni
(INPE),
Rapporteur: Mthetho Sovara
(University of Cape Town)
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Keynote presentation: Towards a bias-free stratosphere
Speaker:
Inna Polichtchouk
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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45m |
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Stratosphere and stratosphere-troposphere coupling biases in subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast models: An international SNAP community effort
Speaker:
Zachary Lawrence
(CIRES / CU Boulder / NOAA PSL)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
20m |
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Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere interactions
Chair:
Mark Rodwell
(ECMWF),
Jonathan Christophersen
(NRL),
Rapporteurs: Ariane Frassoni
(INPE),
Mthetho Sovara
(University of Cape Town)
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Parameterizing ocean turbulence: Bias reduction via advanced representation of mesoscale eddies
Speaker:
Stephan Juricke
(Jacobs University Bremen, Department of Mathematics & Logistics, and Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Coffee break
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ECMWF
Reading
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30m |
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Does choice of bulk surface flux algorithm contribute to systematic errors in climate and forecast models?
Speaker:
Charlotte DeMott
(Colorado State University)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
25m |
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Outcomes from UGROW-IO: Forecast errors in the Eastern Indian Ocean across lead times
Speaker:
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Improving surface heat flux over the Arctic with the coupled climate model EC-Earth3
Speaker:
Tian Tian
(Danish Meteorological Institute)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Wintertime Boundary-Layer and Surface Energy Budget Statistics in the Central Arctic
Speaker:
Jonathan Day
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Lunch break
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ECMWF
Reading
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1h 15m |
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Quantifying uncertainty
Chair:
Jonathan Day
(ECMWF),
Chiara De Falco
(NORCE),
Rapporteur: Jonathan Christophersen
(NRL)
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Keynote presentation: Impact of stochastic parameterizations on coupled simulations with CESM2
Speaker:
Judith Berner
(NCAR)
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ECMWF
Reading
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45m |
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Importance of the representation of warm conveyor belts for the predictability of the large-scale flow on sub-seasonal time scales
Speaker:
Julian Quinting
(Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Coffee break
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ECMWF
Reading
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30m |
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Uncertainty in the stratospheric mean state in reanalyses
Speaker:
Bill Bell
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Constraining the large spread of future ocean carbon sinks in ESMs
Speaker:
Jerry Tjiputra
(NORCE, Bjerknes Centre)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Poster session 2
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2h 15m | |
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Informal drinks in Reading Town Centre
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ECMWF
Reading
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2h |
| Wednesday, 2 November | |||
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Abstract Competition Winners
Chair:
Zied Ben Bouallegue
(ECMWF),
Ariane Frassoni
(INPE)
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MJO impacts on South America monsoon season and their modulation by ENSO in MetUM-GOML3 model
Speaker:
Laís Gonçalves Fernandes
(Federal University of Paraná / University of Reading)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Impact of high-resolution land surface data assimilation on Fog: A case study from the WiFEX campaign
Speaker:
Avinash Parde
(Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology / Savitribai Phule Pune University)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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An attempt to simulate Mean state in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (Version 2) through a Stochastic Multicloud Model calibrated through Indian Radar Data
Speaker:
Kumar Roy
(Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Coffee break
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ECMWF
Reading
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30m |
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Breakout sessions
Chair:
Anne Verhoef
(University of Reading),
James Doyle
(Naval Research Laboratory),
Remote breakout groups: Nils Wedi
(ECMWF),
Rapporteur: Jonathan Christophersen
(NRL)
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2h | |
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Lunch break
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ECMWF
Reading
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1h 15m |
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Machine learning / AI and data assimilation: novel techniques to diagnose, measure or resolve systematic errors
Chair:
Chris Roberts
(ECMWF),
Fanglin Yang
(NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC),
Rapporteur: Morteza Pakdaman
(CRI)
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Keynote presentation: Model Evaluation and Intercomparison of Marine Warm Low Cloud Fractions with Neural Network Ensembles
Speaker:
Yaosheng Chen
(Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder; NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
45m |
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Addressing the calibration bottleneck using machine learning: application to the CNRM-CM6-1 climate model
Speaker:
Romain Roehrig
(CNRM)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Coffee break
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ECMWF
Reading
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30m |
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Reducing systematic forecast errors by coupling uncertain model parameters to data assimilation
Speaker:
Günther Zängl
(Deutscher Wetterdienst)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Reducing the Effects of Model Errors by Augmenting the Numerical Model with a Machine Learning Component
Speaker:
Istvan Szunyogh
(Texas A&M University)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Ocean bias correction in coupled model predictions: ocean tendency adjustment based on data assimilation and machine learning
Speaker:
Feiyu Lu
(Princeton University and NOAA/GFDL)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
25m |
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Poster session 3
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1h 30m | |
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Informal drinks in Reading Town Centre
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ECMWF
Reading
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2h |
| Thursday, 3 November | |||
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Challenges and surprises in simulating the climate system
Chair:
David Richardson
(ECMWF),
Christian Grams
(IMK-TRO, KIT),
Rapporteurs: Laís Fernandes
(University of Reading),
Stephanie Rushley
(NRL)
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Keynote presentation: Recent Progress and Challenges on Global sub-5km mesh Model Experiments from the Sub-seasonal to Climate Scales
Speaker:
Daisuke Takasuka
(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)
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ECMWF
Reading
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45m |
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Mitigating climate biases in the mid-latitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet
Speaker:
Panos Athanasiadis
(CMCC)
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ECMWF
Reading
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20m |
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The dependence of anvil cloud fraction on horizontal resolution in radiative-convective equilibrium
Speaker:
Zeyuan Hu
(Harvard University)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Coffee break
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ECMWF
Reading
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30m |
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Tackling systematic model errors related to the representation of convective precipitation at storm-scale resolutions in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System
Speaker:
Tobias Becker
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Missing eddy feedback may explain weak signal to noise ratios in climate predictions
Speaker:
Steven Hardiman
(Met Office)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Informal talk and discussion on Digital Earth Lighthouse activity
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Destination Earth first high-priority Digital Twins
Speaker:
Irina Sandu
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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55m |
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Lunch break
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ECMWF
Reading
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1h 30m |
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Breakout session plenary
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45m | |
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Coffee and poster session 4: online only
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2h 15m | |
| Friday, 4 November | |||
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Novel approaches to diagnose, measure or reduce systematic errors
Chair:
Richard Forbes
(ECMWF),
Günther Zängl
(DWD),
Rapporteur: Stephanie Rushley
(NRL)
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Use of short-range forecasts to evaluate fast physics processes relevant for climate sensitivity
Speaker:
Keith Williams
(Met Office)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
25m |
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A causal networks framework for process-oriented dynamical Model evaluation
Speaker:
Nachiketa Acharya
(CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder & NOAA PSL)
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Virtual presentation
Virtual presentation |
20m |
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Physical processes driving mean-state biases in MetUM simulations of the summer West Pacific subtropical high
Speaker:
José M. Rodríguez
(Met Office)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Coffee break
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ECMWF
Reading
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30m |
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Skill and biases in medium-range forecast models using the same initial conditions
Speaker:
Linus Magnusson
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Systematic errors in the Asian monsoon in the Met Office Unified Model
Speaker:
Kalli Furtado
(Met Office)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal reforecasts
Speaker:
Steffen Tietsche
(ECMWF)
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ECMWF
Reading
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25m |
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Closure
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ECMWF
Reading
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5m |