6th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models

Monday, 31 October
Registration and Welcome
09:45 10:30
Registration
Weather Room

Weather Room

45m
10:30 10:45
Welcome Plenary
Speakers: Carolyn Reynolds (US Naval Research Laboratory), Nils Wedi (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
15m
Clouds and precipitation
Chair: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF), Carolyn Reynolds (NRL)
10:45 11:30
Keynote presentation: Representation of clouds and precipitation in storm-resolving coupled global simulations
Speaker: Cathy Hohenegger (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
11:30 11:55
A Hybrid Cloud Fraction Scheme: Evaluation and Sensitivity to Phase Overlap
Speaker: Kwinten Van Weverberg (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:55 12:20
The representation of convection in the Unified Model at 1.5 km to 100 m gridlength
Speaker: Kirsty Hanley (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:20 12:45
A clearer view of cloudy skies: Understanding systematic cloud and radiation errors in the ECMWF global model
Speaker: Richard Forbes (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:45 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
(Sub-)tropical circulation
Chair: Rebecca Emerton (ECMWF), Matthew Janiga (NRL), Rapporteur: Chiara De Falco (NORCE)
14:00 14:45
Keynote presentation: Diagnosing and Addressing Model Error in High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Speaker: James Doyle (Naval Research Laboratory)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
14:45 15:10
Impact of tropical eastern Pacific warming bias on Caribbean climate
Speaker: Marta Brotons Blanes (KNMI)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
15:10 15:40
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:40 16:05
Rapid development of ENSO-related seasonal forecast errors
Speaker: Jonathan Beverley (CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA PSL)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
16:05 16:30
On the biases in South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation simulations
Speaker: Dipti Hingmire (University of Victoria)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

25m
16:30 16:55
On the Sensitivity of the Simulated Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation to 3-Hourly Radiosonde Assimilation: A Case Study over the Western Maritime Continent
Speaker: Joshua Lee (Centre for Climate Research Singapore)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

25m
16:55 17:20
Reducing Tropical Cyclone Biases in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability
Speaker: Stephanie Rushley (NRC Postdoctoral Research Associate)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
17:20 17:45
The Indo-Pacific MJO pathway: Coupling, physics and continental barriers to propagation
Speaker: Richard Neale (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
18:00 20:30
Ice breaker and Poster session 1
2h 30m
Tuesday, 1 November
Stratosphere-Troposphere interactions
Chair: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF), Ariane Frassoni (INPE), Rapporteur: Mthetho Sovara (University of Cape Town)
09:00 09:45
Keynote presentation: Towards a bias-free stratosphere
Speaker: Inna Polichtchouk (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
09:45 10:05
Stratosphere and stratosphere-troposphere coupling biases in subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast models: An international SNAP community effort
Speaker: Zachary Lawrence (CIRES / CU Boulder / NOAA PSL)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

20m
Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere interactions
Chair: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF), Jonathan Christophersen (NRL), Rapporteurs: Ariane Frassoni (INPE), Mthetho Sovara (University of Cape Town)
10:05 10:30
Parameterizing ocean turbulence: Bias reduction via advanced representation of mesoscale eddies
Speaker: Stephan Juricke (Jacobs University Bremen, Department of Mathematics & Logistics, and Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:30 11:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 11:25
Does choice of bulk surface flux algorithm contribute to systematic errors in climate and forecast models?
Speaker: Charlotte DeMott (Colorado State University)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

25m
11:25 11:50
Outcomes from UGROW-IO: Forecast errors in the Eastern Indian Ocean across lead times
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:50 12:15
Improving surface heat flux over the Arctic with the coupled climate model EC-Earth3
Speaker: Tian Tian (Danish Meteorological Institute)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:15 12:40
An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Wintertime Boundary-Layer and Surface Energy Budget Statistics in the Central Arctic
Speaker: Jonathan Day (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:45 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
Quantifying uncertainty
Chair: Jonathan Day (ECMWF), Chiara De Falco (NORCE), Rapporteur: Jonathan Christophersen (NRL)
14:00 14:45
Keynote presentation: Impact of stochastic parameterizations on coupled simulations with CESM2
Speaker: Judith Berner (NCAR)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
14:45 15:10
Importance of the representation of warm conveyor belts for the predictability of the large-scale flow on sub-seasonal time scales
Speaker: Julian Quinting (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
15:10 15:40
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:40 16:05
Uncertainty in the stratospheric mean state in reanalyses
Speaker: Bill Bell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
16:05 16:30
Constraining the large spread of future ocean carbon sinks in ESMs
Speaker: Jerry Tjiputra (NORCE, Bjerknes Centre)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
16:45 19:00
Poster session 2
2h 15m
19:00 21:00
Informal drinks in Reading Town Centre

ECMWF

Reading
2h
Wednesday, 2 November
Abstract Competition Winners
Chair: Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF), Ariane Frassoni (INPE)
09:00 09:25
MJO impacts on South America monsoon season and their modulation by ENSO in MetUM-GOML3 model
Speaker: Laís Gonçalves Fernandes (Federal University of Paraná / University of Reading)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
09:25 09:50
Impact of high-resolution land surface data assimilation on Fog: A case study from the WiFEX campaign
Speaker: Avinash Parde (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology / Savitribai Phule Pune University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
09:50 10:15
An attempt to simulate Mean state in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (Version 2) through a Stochastic Multicloud Model calibrated through Indian Radar Data
Speaker: Kumar Roy (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:15 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 12:45
Breakout sessions
Chair: Anne Verhoef (University of Reading), James Doyle (Naval Research Laboratory), Remote breakout groups: Nils Wedi (ECMWF), Rapporteur: Jonathan Christophersen (NRL)
2h
12:45 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
Machine learning / AI and data assimilation: novel techniques to diagnose, measure or resolve systematic errors
Chair: Chris Roberts (ECMWF), Fanglin Yang (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC), Rapporteur: Morteza Pakdaman (CRI)
14:00 14:45
Keynote presentation: Model Evaluation and Intercomparison of Marine Warm Low Cloud Fractions with Neural Network Ensembles
Speaker: Yaosheng Chen (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder; NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

45m
14:45 15:10
Addressing the calibration bottleneck using machine learning: application to the CNRM-CM6-1 climate model
Speaker: Romain Roehrig (CNRM)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
15:10 15:40
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:40 16:05
Reducing systematic forecast errors by coupling uncertain model parameters to data assimilation
Speaker: Günther Zängl (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
16:05 16:30
Reducing the Effects of Model Errors by Augmenting the Numerical Model with a Machine Learning Component
Speaker: Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
16:30 16:55
Ocean bias correction in coupled model predictions: ocean tendency adjustment based on data assimilation and machine learning
Speaker: Feiyu Lu (Princeton University and NOAA/GFDL)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

25m
17:00 18:30
Poster session 3
1h 30m
19:00 21:00
Informal drinks in Reading Town Centre

ECMWF

Reading
2h
Thursday, 3 November
Challenges and surprises in simulating the climate system
Chair: David Richardson (ECMWF), Christian Grams (IMK-TRO, KIT), Rapporteurs: Laís Fernandes (University of Reading), Stephanie Rushley (NRL)
09:00 09:45
Keynote presentation: Recent Progress and Challenges on Global sub-5km mesh Model Experiments from the Sub-seasonal to Climate Scales
Speaker: Daisuke Takasuka (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
09:45 10:05
Mitigating climate biases in the mid-latitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet
Speaker: Panos Athanasiadis (CMCC)

ECMWF

Reading
20m
10:05 10:30
The dependence of anvil cloud fraction on horizontal resolution in radiative-convective equilibrium
Speaker: Zeyuan Hu (Harvard University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:30 11:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 11:25
Tackling systematic model errors related to the representation of convective precipitation at storm-scale resolutions in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System
Speaker: Tobias Becker (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:25 11:50
Missing eddy feedback may explain weak signal to noise ratios in climate predictions
Speaker: Steven Hardiman (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
Informal talk and discussion on Digital Earth Lighthouse activity
11:50 12:45
Destination Earth first high-priority Digital Twins
Speaker: Irina Sandu (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
12:45 14:15
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 30m
14:15 15:00
Breakout session plenary
45m
15:15 17:30
Coffee and poster session 4: online only
2h 15m
Friday, 4 November
Novel approaches to diagnose, measure or reduce systematic errors
Chair: Richard Forbes (ECMWF), Günther Zängl (DWD), Rapporteur: Stephanie Rushley (NRL)
09:00 09:25
Use of short-range forecasts to evaluate fast physics processes relevant for climate sensitivity
Speaker: Keith Williams (Met Office)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

25m
09:25 09:45
A causal networks framework for process-oriented dynamical Model evaluation
Speaker: Nachiketa Acharya (CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder & NOAA PSL)
Virtual presentation

Virtual presentation

20m
09:45 10:10
Physical processes driving mean-state biases in MetUM simulations of the summer West Pacific subtropical high
Speaker: José M. Rodríguez (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:10 10:40
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:40 11:05
Skill and biases in medium-range forecast models using the same initial conditions
Speaker: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:05 11:30
Systematic errors in the Asian monsoon in the Met Office Unified Model
Speaker: Kalli Furtado (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:30 11:55
Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal reforecasts
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:55 12:00
Closure

ECMWF

Reading
5m

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