6th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models

Monday, 31 October
Registration and Welcome
9:45 AM 10:30 AM
Registration
Weather Room

Weather Room

45m
10:30 AM 10:45 AM
Welcome Plenary

ECMWF

Reading
15m
Clouds and precipitation
10:45 AM 11:30 AM
Keynote presentation: Representation of clouds and precipitation in storm-resolving coupled global simulations
Speaker: Cathy Hohenegger (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
11:30 AM 11:55 AM
A Hybrid Cloud Fraction Scheme: Evaluation and Sensitivity to Phase Overlap
Speaker: Kwinten Van Weverberg (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:55 AM 12:20 PM
The representation of convection in the Unified Model at 1.5 km to 100 m gridlength
Speaker: Kirsty Hanley (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:20 PM 12:45 PM
A clearer view of cloudy skies: Understanding systematic cloud and radiation errors in the ECMWF global model
Speaker: Richard Forbes (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:45 PM 2:00 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
(Sub-)tropical circulation
2:00 PM 2:45 PM
Keynote presentation: Diagnosing and Addressing Model Error in High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Speaker: James Doyle (Naval Research Laboratory)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
2:45 PM 3:10 PM
Impact of tropical eastern Pacific warming bias on Caribbean climate
Speaker: Marta Brotons Blanes (KNMI)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
3:10 PM 3:40 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
3:40 PM 4:05 PM
Rapid development of ENSO-related seasonal forecast errors
Speaker: Jonathan Beverley (CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA PSL)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:05 PM 4:30 PM
On the biases in South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation simulations
Speaker: Dipti Hingmire (University of Victoria)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:30 PM 4:55 PM
On the Sensitivity of the Simulated Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation to 3-Hourly Radiosonde Assimilation: A Case Study over the Western Maritime Continent
Speaker: Joshua Lee (Centre for Climate Research Singapore)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:55 PM 5:20 PM
Reducing Tropical Cyclone Biases in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability
Speaker: Stephanie Rushley (NRC Postdoctoral Research Associate)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
5:20 PM 5:45 PM
The Indo-Pacific MJO pathway: Coupling, physics and continental barriers to propagation
Speaker: Richard Neale (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
6:00 PM 8:30 PM
Ice breaker and Poster session 1
2h 30m
Tuesday, 1 November
Stratosphere-Troposphere interactions
9:00 AM 9:45 AM
Keynote presentation: Towards a bias-free stratosphere
Speaker: Inna Polichtchouk

ECMWF

Reading
45m
9:45 AM 10:05 AM
Stratosphere and stratosphere-troposphere coupling biases in subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast models: An international SNAP community effort
Speaker: Zachary Lawrence (CIRES / CU Boulder / NOAA PSL)

ECMWF

Reading
20m
Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere interactions
10:05 AM 10:30 AM
Parameterizing ocean turbulence: Bias reduction via advanced representation of mesoscale eddies
Speaker: Stephan Juricke (Jacobs University Bremen, Department of Mathematics & Logistics, and Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:30 AM 11:00 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 AM 11:25 AM
Does choice of bulk surface flux algorithm contribute to systematic errors in climate and forecast models?
Speaker: Charlotte DeMott (Colorado State University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:25 AM 11:50 AM
Outcomes from UGROW-IO: Forecast errors in the Eastern Indian Ocean across lead times
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:50 AM 12:15 PM
Improving surface heat flux over the Arctic with the coupled climate model EC-Earth3
Speaker: Tian Tian (Danish Meteorological Institute)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:15 PM 12:40 PM
An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Wintertime Boundary-Layer and Surface Energy Budget Statistics in the Central Arctic
Speaker: Jonathan Day (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:45 PM 2:00 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
Quantifying uncertainty
2:00 PM 2:45 PM
Keynote presentation
Speaker: Judith Berner (NCAR)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
2:45 PM 3:10 PM
Importance of the representation of warm conveyor belts for the predictability of the large-scale flow on sub-seasonal time scales
Speaker: Julian Quinting (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
3:10 PM 3:40 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
3:40 PM 4:05 PM
Uncertainty in the stratospheric mean state in reanalyses
Speaker: Bill Bell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:05 PM 4:30 PM
Constraining the large spread of future ocean carbon sinks in ESMs
Speaker: Jerry Tjiputra (NORCE, Bjerknes Centre)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:45 PM 7:00 PM
Poster session 2
2h 15m
7:00 PM 9:00 PM
Informal drinks in Reading Town Centre

ECMWF

Reading
2h
Wednesday, 2 November
Abstract Competition Winners
9:00 AM 9:25 AM
MJO impacts on South America monsoon season and their modulation by ENSO in MetUM-GOML3 model
Speaker: Laís Gonçalves Fernandes (Federal University of Paraná / University of Reading)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
9:25 AM 9:50 AM
Impact of high-resolution land surface data assimilation on Fog: A case study from the WiFEX campaign
Speaker: Avinash Parde (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology / Savitribai Phule Pune University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
9:50 AM 10:15 AM
An attempt to simulate Mean state in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (Version 2) through a Stochastic Multicloud Model calibrated through Indian Radar Data
Speaker: Kumar Roy (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:15 AM 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM 12:45 PM
Breakout sessions
2h
12:45 PM 2:00 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 15m
Machine learning / AI and data assimilation: novel techniques to diagnose, measure or resolve systematic errors
2:00 PM 2:45 PM
Keynote presentation
Speaker: Yao-Sheng Chen

ECMWF

Reading
45m
2:45 PM 3:10 PM
Addressing the calibration bottleneck using machine learning: application to the CNRM-CM6-1 climate model
Speaker: Romain Roehrig (CNRM)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
3:10 PM 3:40 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
3:40 PM 4:05 PM
Reducing systematic forecast errors by coupling uncertain model parameters to data assimilation
Speaker: Günther Zängl (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:05 PM 4:30 PM
Reducing the Effects of Model Errors by Augmenting the Numerical Model with a Machine Learning Component
Speaker: Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:30 PM 4:55 PM
Ocean bias correction in coupled model predictions: ocean tendency adjustment based on data assimilation and machine learning
Speaker: Feiyu Lu (Princeton University and NOAA/GFDL)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
5:00 PM 7:00 PM
Poster session 3
2h
7:00 PM 9:00 PM
Informal drinks in Reading Town Centre

ECMWF

Reading
2h
Thursday, 3 November
Challenges and surprises in simulating the climate system
9:00 AM 9:45 AM
Keynote presentation
Speakers: Daisuke Takasuka (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo) , Tomoki Miyakawa

ECMWF

Reading
45m
9:45 AM 10:05 AM
Mitigating climate biases in the mid-latitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet
Speaker: Panos Athanasiadis (CMCC)

ECMWF

Reading
20m
10:05 AM 10:30 AM
The dependence of anvil cloud fraction on horizontal resolution in radiative-convective equilibrium
Speaker: Zeyuan Hu (Harvard University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:30 AM 11:00 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 AM 11:25 AM
Tackling systematic model errors related to the representation of convective precipitation at storm-scale resolutions in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System
Speaker: Tobias Becker (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:25 AM 11:50 AM
Missing eddy feedback may explain weak signal to noise ratios in climate predictions
Speaker: Steven Hardiman (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
Informal talk and discussion on Digital Earth Lighthouse activity
11:50 AM 12:45 PM
Destination Earth first high-priority Digital Twins
Speaker: Irina Sandu (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
12:45 PM 2:15 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 30m
2:15 PM 3:00 PM
Breakout session plenary
45m
3:15 PM 5:30 PM
Coffee and poster session 4: online only
2h 15m
Friday, 4 November
Novel approaches to diagnose, measure or reduce systematic errors
9:00 AM 9:25 AM
Use of short-range forecasts to evaluate fast physics processes relevant for climate sensitivity
Speaker: Keith Williams (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
9:25 AM 9:45 AM
A causal networks framework for process-oriented dynamical Model evaluation
Speaker: Nachiketa Acharya (CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder & NOAA PSL)

ECMWF

Reading
20m
9:45 AM 10:10 AM
Physical processes driving mean-state biases in MetUM simulations of the summer West Pacific subtropical high
Speaker: José M. Rodríguez (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:10 AM 10:40 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:40 AM 11:05 AM
Skill and biases in medium-range forecast models using the same initial conditions
Speaker: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:05 AM 11:30 AM
Evaluating nudged climate models with MOSAiC observations reveals deficiencies in mixed-phase clouds and snow thermodynamics
Speaker: Felix Pithan (Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz centre for polar and marine science)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:30 AM 11:55 AM
Systematic errors in the Asian monsoon in the Met Office Unified Model
Speaker: Kalli Furtado (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:55 AM 12:20 PM
Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal reforecasts
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:20 PM 12:25 PM
Closure

ECMWF

Reading
5m

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