Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2022)

A 2006 report by the National Research Council entitled “Completing the Forecast” concluded that uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. The Whole Story Uncertainty and Probabilities (WSUP) Viewer is a cloud-based user interface for displaying forecast data not able to be transmitted to the NWS Weather Forecast Offices due to volume. Model data unavailable to NWS field forecasters include the majority of the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast grids as well as snow and ice exceedance probability grids. Given the potential for large impacts to life and property, probabilities concerning these forecast elements can be valuable to forecast offices in providing impact-based decision support services. In addition to conveying probabilistic information, the NWS viewer displays model components at select point locations. By seeing individual model component data, forecasters can better understand how our National Blend of Models (NBM) arrived at its guidance forecast.