30 Years of Ensemble Forecasting and Symposium for Prof. Tim Palmer

Monday, 5 December
9:30 AM 10:00 AM
Registration

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 AM 10:10 AM
Welcome
Speaker: Florence Rabier (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
10m
10:10 AM 10:35 AM
Evolution of Ideas Leading to Dynamical Seasonal Prediction
Speaker: Jagadish Shukla (George Mason University)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
10:35 AM 11:00 AM
Ensembles and probabilities in the 1980s: Pioneering the use of dynamical ensembles in real-time monthly predictions
Speaker: James Murphy (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:00 AM 11:25 AM
Representing uncertainty in initial conditions: experimentation from lagged average forecasting to singular vectors
Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
11:25 AM 12:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
35m
12:00 PM 12:25 PM
Perturbations in the ECMWF operational ensembles
Speaker: Roberto Buizza (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:25 PM 12:50 PM
Evaluation of ensemble forecasts
Speaker: David Richardson (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
12:50 PM 2:00 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h 10m
2:00 PM 2:25 PM
ECMWF road towards the extended range ensemble forecasting
Speaker: Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
2:25 PM 2:50 PM
How ensemble forecasts enhance the energy sector
Speaker: Isla Finney (Lake Street Consulting Ltd)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
2:50 PM 3:15 PM
Sensitivity to initial conditions and external forcing in climate predictions
Speaker: Susanna Corti (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate - National Research Council)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
3:15 PM 3:45 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
3:45 PM 4:10 PM
From Hazard Anticipation & Mitigation to Increasing Food Security: Utilizing Ensemble Forecasts in the Developing World
Speaker: Peter Webster (School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:10 PM 4:35 PM
Ensemble forecasting for anticipatory humanitarian action
Speaker: Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
4:35 PM 5:00 PM
Ensemble forecasts at ECMWF today
Speaker: Peter Dueben (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
25m
5:00 PM 6:00 PM
Drinks reception (all participants)
Weather Room

Weather Room

1h
6:00 PM 8:30 PM
Symposium dinner (invited guests)
ECMWF Restaurant

ECMWF Restaurant

2h 30m

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