Diagnostics are used throughout weather forecasting. They can identify problems, aid model development, and highlight successes. Fundamental goals for ECMWF and others include the improvement of ensemble systems and their underlying Earth system models (ESM). This workshop will discuss how novel diagnostics can help us achieve these goals in physics-driven and data-driven systems. Themes include:
- Diagnostics of predictability – key initial condition and model uncertainties, pathways of error growth
- Process-oriented diagnostics – identifying issues, digging deeper, ESM interactions, learning from km-scale forecasts
- Data assimilation and ML as diagnostic tools – flow-dependent bias and uncertainty growth, explainable AI
- Community diagnostic packages and data archives – the benefits of comparison and communication
The use of examples of applications to weather phenomena (tropical waves and cyclones, extratropical storm-tracks and blocking, for example) will help make the workshop accessible to a wide-range of participants. Highlighting diagnostic success stories (where diagnostics have made a difference) will be valuable.
The workshop will take place at the ECMWF’s Headquarters in Reading on 9-12 September 2024, and will consist of in-person talks and poster presentations. Attendance is limited by lecture theatre capacity, but talks will be live streamed.
We invite abstract submissions from anyone with an interest in diagnostics of weather prediction, and particularly encourage abstracts from ECMWF’s Member and Co-operating States.
Abstract submission is now open and closes on 24 March 2024.
Registration will open on 22 April 2024.