Annual Seminar 2019

Skillful seasonal climate predictions for European climate remain a formidable challenge. I will present recent progress in predicting European climate variability using prediction systems based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). In the presentation, I will challenge the current practice in seasonal climate predictions to focus on the analysis of the ensemble-mean forecast. In addition, I will suggest process-based narratives, which I will illustrate by analyzing seasonal re-forecasts for European summer and winter climate.