Annual Seminar 2019

Seasonal forecasting systems: present and future

Seasonal forecasting systems based on general circulation models have been developed at various operational forecast centres over the last 25 years, and ECMWF is one of the places which has much experience with this type of forecasting system. Some aspects of such forecasting systems are mature, and give moderately reliable information about the future. Other aspects are still considered problematic, with models struggling to capture apparent features of reality, and significant gaps in our knowledge of the processes determining predicatability at seasonal timescales.

The status and development of EMCWF's current seasonal forecast system, SEAS5, will be discussed in this context, together with some of the outstanding challenges and plans for the future. The critical role of model errors and how they can be dealt with will be reviewed, including the important role of multi-model forecasting systems.