Annual Seminar 2019

We present an update on long range predictability of the winter NAO and hence European winters. Recent years continue to support hindcast results that the winter NAO is predictable at seasonal lead times and here we investigate mechanisms for this predictability from the tropics and the stratosphere.
High predictability of tropical rainfall is first demonstrated for current prediction...

Seasonal forecasting systems: present and future

Seasonal forecasting systems based on general circulation models have been developed at various operational forecast centres over the last 25 years, and ECMWF is one of the places which has much experience with this type of forecasting system. Some aspects of such forecasting systems are mature, and give moderately reliable information about...

Multi-week/seasonal prediction for agricultural applications in Australia
Oscar Alves
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, VIC 3008

The main driver for the development of multi-week to seasonal prediction systems in Australia is to support decision making in the agricultural sector. The development of a new dynamical seasonal prediction model, ACCESS-S (Australian Community...

The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) is a U.S. multi-agency collaborative effort to leverage resources to develop the next generation environmental forecasting system. As part of this effort, the U. S. Navy is developing a fully coupled global system including the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Los Alamos...