Training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems

Monday, 19 October
9:00 AM → 9:30 AM
Arrivals and registration

ECMWF

Reading
30m
9:30 AM → 10:15 AM
Introduction and practicalities
Speakers: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Julia Ioannou (ECMWF)

Council Chamber

 		45m
10:15 AM → 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM → 11:40 AM
Introduction to probabilistic seamless forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM → 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM → 12:45 PM
Chaos and predictability limits
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM → 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM → 2:40 PM
Initial condition uncertainty
Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
2:40 PM → 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM → 3:40 PM
Diagnostics (1)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
3:40 PM → 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM → 4:15 PM
Introduction to practial sessions - Making sure your computer works!
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

Classroom

 		15m
4:15 PM → 4:45 PM
Express poster presentations
30m
4:45 PM → 6:15 PM
Ice breaker event

Weather Room

 		1h 30m
Tuesday, 20 October
9:30 AM → 10:15 AM
Coupled sea ice-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
10:15 AM → 10:45 AM
Coffee break & Group photo

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM → 11:40 AM
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM → 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM → 12:45 PM
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - MJO
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM → 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM → 2:40 PM
Poster Session

Weather Room

 		55m
2:40 PM → 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM → 3:40 PM
Coupled land-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Jonathan Day (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
3:40 PM → 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM → 5:00 PM
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - ENSO
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Wednesday, 21 October
9:30 AM → 10:15 AM
Ensemble Forecasting with AIFS
Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
10:15 AM → 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM → 11:40 AM
Model uncertainty
Speaker: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM → 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM → 12:45 PM
Ensemble verification (1)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM → 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM → 2:40 PM
Poster session

Weather Room

 		55m
2:40 PM → 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM → 3:40 PM
Diagnostics (2)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
3:40 PM → 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM → 5:00 PM
Overview of forecast systems in extended and long range
Speakers: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Thursday, 22 October
9:30 AM → 10:15 AM
Ensemble verification (2)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
10:15 AM → 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM → 11:40 AM
Weather regimes and teleconnections
Speaker: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM → 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM → 12:45 PM
Overview of Forecast systems in seasonal range
Speaker: Stephanie Johnson (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM → 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM → 2:40 PM
Practical session using SciLab
Speakers: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

 		55m
2:40 PM → 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM → 3:40 PM
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

 		55m
3:40 PM → 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM → 5:00 PM
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF and University of Oxford), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

 		1h
Friday, 23 October
9:30 AM → 10:15 AM
Assessing the skill of long-range forecast & the predictability paradox
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF and University of Oxford)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
10:15 AM → 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM → 11:40 AM
Use of ML in predictability studies
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM → 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM → 12:45 PM
Question and Answer Session
 1h

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