Annual Seminar 2019

NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation system can be configured for several applications in NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The GMAO performs model-based studies to enhance NASA’s Earth observations, including (among others) the provision of: auxiliary information to space observations; forecasting support for aircraft field missions;...

In this talk, I discuss three techniques for comparing forecasts. The first technique is to identify the predictable space at a given time scale using predictable component analysis. Predictable component analysis finds the linear combination of variables that maximizes a measure of predictability. On subseasonal time scales, this space appears to be very low dimensional. I also will...

In line with its long-term strategy, ECMWF has recently developed new diagnostics designed to support the prediction of severe weather in Europe. Predicting severe events presents several challenges. It is difficult to gather a large enough sample to get robust statistics. Each event has its own unique nature. A specific physical process relevant for the development of one cold spell, as for...

Skillful seasonal climate predictions for European climate remain a formidable challenge. I will present recent progress in predicting European climate variability using prediction systems based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). In the presentation, I will challenge the current practice in seasonal climate predictions to focus on the analysis of the ensemble-mean...