Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere

Europe/London
ECMWF

ECMWF

Reading
Description

This workshop will bring together experts to discuss and propose ways forward in representing the stratosphere in current and future numerical weather prediction models (1-50 km resolution, forecast lead times from medium-range to seasonal), and pathways by which better treatment of the stratosphere can improve predictive skill in the troposphere. The topics will include understanding and diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere interactions, improved parametrizations and numerical schemes, the role of water vapour and ozone, observational evaluation and data assimilation. The aim of the workshop is to provide guidance to ECMWF on the priorities for representing the stratosphere in the coming decade.

Registration
Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere
Events team
Monday, 18 November
12:30 13:00
Registration
30m
13:00 13:15
Opening and welcome
15m
13:15 14:00
Importance of the stratosphere for extended-range prediction
Speaker: Ted Shepherd (Reading University)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
Session 1 : Predictability, teleconnections and tropospheric impacts
14:00 14:45
The representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in S2S models
Speaker: Amy Butler (CIRES/NOAA)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
14:45 15:30
TBD
Speaker: Judith Perlwitz (ESRL)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
15:30 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:00 16:30
How Does the Troposphere Amplify Stratospheric Variability?
Speaker: Mark Baldwin (University of Exeter)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:30 17:00
Dynamics of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Speaker: Thomas Birner (University of Munich)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:00 17:30
Dependence of simulated atmospheric teleconnections on biases in stratospheric circulation
Speaker: Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:30 18:00
Sudden stratospheric warmings in reanalyses and their tropospheric fingerprint
Speaker: Blanca Ayarzagüena (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
18:00 20:00
Ice breaker and posters
2h
Tuesday, 19 November
Session 1 - Day 2
09:00 09:30
On the dynamics of stratosphere-troposphere planetary-wave coupling
Speaker: Etienne Dunn-Sigouin (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
09:30 10:00
The dynamics and predictability of sudden stratospheric warmings and their surface impacts
Speaker: Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 10:30
Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral spring and early summer
Speaker: Nick Byrne (Reading University/ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 11:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 11:30
Stratospheric impact on surface climate on seasonal time scales
Speaker: Steven Hardiman (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:30 12:00
The impact of Arctic sea-ice anomalies on the stratospheric polar vortex
Speaker: William Seviour (University of Bristol)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:00 12:30
A signal and noise analysis of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models.
Speaker: Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:30 13:00
TBD

ECMWF

Reading
30m
13:00 14:00
Lunch

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 15:00
Panel discussion on the themes presented in session 1
1h
Session 2 : Internal processes (GWs, radiation, ozone)
15:00 15:30
Beyond Traditional Limits of Gravity-Wave Parameterizations: Unbalanced Mean Flows
Speaker: Ulrich Achatz (Goethe Universität Frankfurt)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:30 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:00 16:30
Stratospheric impacts of a source-based parameterization of gravity waves generated by flow imbalance
Speaker: Alvaro de la Camara (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:30 17:00
Trace Gas Transport in the Stratosphere: Opportunities and Challenges
Speaker: Edwin Gerber (Courant Institute, New York University)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:00 17:30
TBD
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:30 18:00
Chemical, radiative and dynamics interactions in the stratosphere using a hierarchy of models
Speaker: Alison Ming (University of Cambridge)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
18:30 19:30
Poster session
1h
Wednesday, 20 November
Session 3 : Observations / Assimilation
09:00 09:30
Global gravity wave distributions observed from satellites and resolved in the ECMWF-IFS
Speaker: Peter Preusse (Forschungszentrum Juelich)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
09:30 10:00
Stratospheric waves over the Southern Andes
Speaker: Andreas Dörnbrack (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 10:30
TBD
Speaker: Riwal Plougonven (LMD/IPSL, Ecole Polytechnique)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 11:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 13:00
Panel discussion on the themes presented in session 2 & 3
2h
13:00 14:00
Lunch

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Session 4 : Model biases / initial conditions / diagnostics
14:00 14:30
TBD
Speaker: Elias Holm (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
14:30 15:00
Quantifying subseasonal variability in analyses and ensemble prediction
Speaker: Nedjeljka Zagar (University of Hamburg)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:00 15:30
Using causal discovery algorithms to evaluate troposphere-stratosphere linkages in reanalyses and modelling experiments
Speaker: Marlene Kretschmer (PIK)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:30 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:00 16:30
Causes and fixes for polar lowermost stratospheric cold bias
Speaker: Inna Polichtchouk (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:30 17:00
TBD

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:00 17:30
TBD

ECMWF

Reading
30m
19:00 21:00
Workshop dinner
2h
Thursday, 21 November
Session 5 : Dynamical cores / model development
09:00 09:45
Recent work at DWD to improve model dynamics and physics in the stratosphere and mesosphere
Speaker: Günther Zängl (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
09:45 10:30
TBD

ECMWF

Reading
45m
10:30 11:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 13:00
Panel discussion on the themes presented in session 4 & 5
2h
13:00 14:00
Lunch

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 16:00
Overall discussion and close
2h
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