Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere

Monday, 18 November
12:30 13:15
Registration and coffee
45m
13:15 13:30
Opening and welcome
15m
Session 1 : Introductory / motivating talks
13:30 14:15
Importance of the stratosphere for extended-range prediction
Speaker: Ted Shepherd (Reading University)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
14:15 15:00
The representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in S2S models
Speaker: Amy Butler (CIRES/NOAA)

ECMWF

Reading
45m
Session 2 : Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal modes
15:00 15:30
A signal and noise analysis of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models.
Speaker: Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:30 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:00 16:30
The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability
Speaker: Christopher O'Reilly (University of Oxford)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
16:30 17:00
Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral spring and early summer
Speaker: Nick Byrne (Reading University/ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:00 17:30
On the dynamics of stratosphere-troposphere planetary-wave coupling
Speaker: Etienne Dunn-Sigouin (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:30 18:00
Subseasonal Forecasting of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events and their Influence on the Troposphere in the NASA-GEOS-S2S Forecast System
Speaker: Joan Alexander (NWRA)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
18:00 19:30
Ice breaker, drinks and posters
1h 30m
Tuesday, 19 November
Session 2 (cont.) : Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal modes
09:00 09:30
Stratospheric impact on surface climate on seasonal time scales
Speaker: Steven Hardiman (Met Office)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Session 3 : Polar vortex : predictability and downward influence
09:30 10:00
The dynamics and predictability of sudden stratospheric warmings and their surface impacts
Speaker: Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 10:30
Dynamics of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Speaker: Thomas Birner (University of Munich)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 11:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 11:30
Sudden stratospheric warmings in reanalyses and their tropospheric fingerprint
Speaker: Blanca Ayarzagüena (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:30 12:00
The impact of Arctic sea-ice anomalies on the stratospheric polar vortex
Speaker: William Seviour (University of Bristol)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:00 13:00
Panel discussion
1h
13:00 14:00
Lunch

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 15:30
Poster session
1h 30m
15:30 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Session 3 (cont.) : Polar vortex : predictability and downward influence
16:00 16:30
What influences the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings?
Speaker: Lesley Gray (NCAS University of Oxford)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Session 4 : Trace gases, ozone, Brewer-Dobson circulation
17:00 17:30
Trace Gas Transport in the Stratosphere: Opportunities and Challenges
Speaker: Edwin Gerber (Courant Institute, New York University)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
17:30 18:00
Chemical, radiative and dynamics interactions in the stratosphere using a hierarchy of models
Speaker: Alison Ming (University of Cambridge)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Wednesday, 20 November
Session 5 : Model development, impact of model biases
09:00 09:30
Recent work at DWD to improve model dynamics and physics in the stratosphere and mesosphere
Speaker: Günther Zängl (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
09:30 10:00
A new approach to linear ozone modelling
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 10:30
Dependence of simulated atmospheric teleconnections on biases in stratospheric circulation
Speaker: Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 11:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:00 11:30
Causes and fixes for stratospheric temperature biases in IFS and their impact on predictability
Speaker: Inna Polichtchouk (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:30 12:00
TBD
Speaker: Elias Holm (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
Session 6 : Diagnostics
12:00 12:30
How Does the Troposphere Amplify Stratospheric Variability?
Speaker: Mark Baldwin (University of Exeter)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:30 13:00
Using causal discovery algorithms to evaluate troposphere-stratosphere linkages in reanalyses and modelling experiments
Speaker: Marlene Kretschmer (PIK)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
13:00 14:00
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
14:00 14:30
Propagating annular modes
Speaker: Aditi Sheshadri (Stanford University)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
14:30 15:00
Quantifying subseasonal variability in analyses and ensemble prediction
Speaker: Nedjeljka Zagar (University of Hamburg)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
15:00 17:30
Working groups (with refreshments available in the lobby 15:30-16:00)
2h 30m
19:00 21:00
Workshop dinner
2h
Thursday, 21 November
Session 7 : Gravity waves in observation models
09:00 09:30
Global gravity wave distributions observed from satellites and resolved in the ECMWF-IFS
Speaker: Peter Preusse (Forschungszentrum Juelich)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
09:30 10:00
Stratospheric waves over the Southern Andes
Speaker: Andreas Dörnbrack (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:00 10:30
Beyond Traditional Limits of Gravity-Wave Parameterizations: Unbalanced Mean Flows
Speaker: Ulrich Achatz (Goethe Universität Frankfurt)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:30 11:15
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
45m
11:15 11:45
How does knowledge of atmospheric gravity waves guide their parametrizations?
Speaker: Riwal Plougonven (LMD/IPSL, Ecole Polytechnique)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
11:45 12:15
Stratospheric impacts of a source-based parameterization of gravity waves generated by flow imbalance
Speaker: Alvaro de la Camara (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
12:15 13:00
Working group summaries / discussions and closing
45m
13:00 14:00
Lunch

ECMWF

Reading
1h