The presentation will review forecast product development activities at ECMWF over the past year, in response to user requests and feedback. New forecast outputs introduced over the last year include a new Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) to highlight the large-scale water vapour transport in the atmosphere, as well as products relating to large-scale weather regimes and extremes in the extended...
ECMWF provides its users around the world with predictions for days, weeks and seasons ahead at a level of accuracy and reliability second to none. The Centre owes this leading position to a combination of collaborative principles, top-level professionals, powerful HPC capacities and a strong user focus.
This talk will present ECMWF plans and provide updates on ongoing work programmes....
Near-surface forecast biases are the result of a complex interplay between processes parametrized in the atmospheric and surface columns of a model, leading to locally generated errors, and advection processes, which constitute a non-local source of errors. Understanding the leading causes of such errors is necessary to address and reduce near-surface biases in a way that improves the physics...
An update is given on the evolution of forecast skill of the IFS in the medium and extended range. It is shown that the implementation of model cycle 46r1 in June 2019 has had a significant positive impact on both upper-air and near-surface variables. Causes of persistent systematic errors in near-surface forecasts are discussed and recent steps undertaken for reducing them are outlined....